The fratricidal war on the Navarrese right did not end on 28-M. UPN and the PP, twin parties until 18 months ago, face each other again this Sunday, facing each other to get the two deputies that the right has traditionally achieved in the foral community (five are distributed in Navarra). Contrary to the municipal elections and the Parliament of Navarra in May, the electoral context, in terms of PSOE-PP polarization, favors the popular and UPN runs the risk of being left without any representative in Madrid, a historic setback predicted by the surveys.
Historically, the Navarrese right has obtained two of the five deputies that are distributed in the foral community. This has happened in the last seven general elections, either with the Navarra Suma brand (UPN, PP and Ciudadanos) or as a UPN-PP coalition.
The PSOE, for its part, has been getting two deputies since 1986, with the sole exception of the November 2019 elections. The fifth deputy, finally, has been distributed in the last two decades between EH Bildu, Geroa Bai and Podemos .
The survey carried out by Ipsos for La Vanguardia, however, does not give UPN any deputy, a point in which it coincides with other surveys that have been carried out in recent weeks. The survey with the largest sample in Navarra that has been carried out for 23-J, prepared by EiTB Focus through 915 interviews in the foral community, does not grant representation to UPN either.
This poll gives the PSOE as the winner, with two deputies; followed by the PP, which would achieve another two; and EH Bildu, who would get the fifth seat. In fact, UPN appears as the fifth force, behind Sumar, so that the formation led by Yolanda Díaz would be closer than UPN to gaining a seat or it would even be more likely, always according to this survey, that EH Bildu would achieve a second seat.
The elections of 23-J are presented, in this sense, as a revalidation of the fight between UPN and PP on 28-M. So, in the first electoral date after the breakup of the Navarra Suma coalition, the regionalists capitalized on the vote of the right with 15 seats (out of 50), while the PP won 3 and Vox entered the chamber with 2 deputies, so that they were far from the possibility of governing.
Now, the polarization in a Spanish key would harm UPN to the point of leaving it without representation in Madrid and would show that Javier Esparza, leader of the regionalists, was wrong by not accepting the terms offered by the popular to go in coalition, even if they turned out to be advantageous for the interests of the PP (they asked to lead a common iron).
The PP is carrying out a tough campaign in Navarra, focusing on claiming the useful vote to the detriment of UPN and with the addition that the one who sends this message is Sergio Sayas, a wayward deputy of the regionalists who in February 2022, in the vote on the validation of the labor reform, broke with the voting discipline of his formation. His partner, Carlos García Adanero, ended up leading the PP candidacy in Pamplona, ??while Sayas ended up as head of the PP list for Congress for Navarra.
“This is not the time to look for indirect paths that do not know where they will lead. It is the moment to look for the useful vote”, said Sayas this weekend.
UPN, meanwhile, tries to find a niche by presenting itself as a supporter of the interests of Navarra which, at the same time, would serve to “throw out Pedro Sánchez”.
The hostility between both formations is evident. They compete for the same electorate and, personally, they have spent months crossing harsh accusations. Esparza saved a capital ballot for the future of UPN in May, although it seems that this time he will have it much more complicated. The Navarrese right continues in a fratricidal war between former comrades that will need, at least, a cycle without elections so that the bridges can be rebuilt.
