One of the few positive things about the international mediation in the Ukraine conflict was the agreement reached between the two contenders to allow the supply of millions of tons of wheat to the whole world. Apart from overcoming the threat of famine that hung over many third world countries, especially in Africa, the agreement made it possible to contain cereal prices, which had begun to reach unimaginable figures.
The agreement expired this Monday, and Russia had already warned the UN and Turkey, the two main sponsors of the pact, that it would not renew it because some conditions had been breached. If the rupture seemed irrevocable, all that remained was for an explosion to leave the bridge in the Kerch Strait in Crimea battered yesterday, which is vital for communications between Russia and the peninsula annexed by its army. Kyiv did not want to confirm its authorship and affirmed that it was a Russian provocation, but the reality is that the attack leaves the triumph of diplomacy in this matter quite unfeasible. If Russia does not cooperate, it is practically impossible to get wheat out of Ukrainian ports. Now it was a very complex mission because the ships were led by the Ukrainian military to avoid the mines that sail uncontrollably through the waters of the Black Sea. The five million tons of grain per month will remain in the silos of Ukraine.
And as if this were not enough, yesterday’s attack on the Kerch bridge occurs just one year after former Russian President Dimitri Medvedev warned that if the Ukrainian army attacked the Crimean peninsula, the ” arrival of the final judgment”, alluding to a very forceful response from Russia. Chance? Provocation? It is difficult to speculate from so many kilometers away, but the negative news coming to us from the Ukraine does not invite optimism. Neither because of the economic consequences that the breakdown of the wheat agreement may have, nor because of the risk of a greater conflagration. We will have to be attentive to Russia’s response in the coming days.
