An analysis of the microdata from the most important survey that has been carried out in the Basque Country on the occasion of 23-J, published by EiTB Focus on Monday, reflects an uneven incidence of dual voting, which has traditionally benefited state-level parties, and suggests a close battle between the PNV and EH Bildu. The detail of this demoscopic study detects a minimal transfer of votes from EH Bildu to Sumar, very far from what happened with Podemos in the 2015-2016 electoral cycle, and, in the opposite direction, the nationalist coalition could benefit from the arrival of votes that in 2019 opted for Podemos (14%), for the PNV (7%) or abstained (10%). The jeltzales, for their part, could benefit from transfers of votes from the abstention in 2019 (5%), although 11% of their voters on 28-M could opt for the PSOE.
These data come from the macro survey carried out by EiTB Focus, through 2,400 interviews carried out by Gizaker, and, in particular, from an exhaustive analysis of the microdata carried out by the strategy and public affairs company Silván
One of the sections of the analysis focuses on the transfer of votes, and it does so by comparing, on the one hand, the vote in the general elections in November 2019 with the current voting intention and, on the other, the vote in the municipal and regional elections in May with the intention to vote on 23-J.
The first general conclusion is that, unlike in the 2015-2016 electoral cycle, the weight of the dual vote will be limited. The December 2015 elections and, especially, those of June 2016, at the height of Podemos, led the PNV and EH Bildu to their worst results in the last decade, precisely because there was a large transfer of votes in favor of state-level parties. The comparison with the Basque elections of September 2016, only three months later, is eloquent: the PNV obtained 111,000 fewer votes in the general elections and EH Bildu almost 75,000 fewer votes.
The incidence of dual voting, a term that has been used to explain how voters vote differently depending on the election, dropped drastically in the 2019-2020 electoral cycle.
Now, the EiTB Focus survey suggests that this last trend will be repeated and even points to transfers in the opposite direction.
In the case of the PNV, its main concern should be the flight of votes to the PSOE, a limited trend, but one that can be detected if the vote in May is compared with the intention to vote this Sunday. Thus, 11% of those who voted for the jeltzales in the May elections could now bet on the socialists, according to the analysis made public by Silván
If the vote in the general elections of November 2019 and the current voting intention are compared, the microdata reflect other vote transfers. On the positive side for the PNV, it could collect 5% of the votes from abstentions in 2019. On the negative side, 16% of its voters in the general elections four years ago are in the undecided section and 7% have indicated that they will vote for EH Bildu in the survey.
As for EH Bildu, the analysis of the microdata is especially favorable if the general elections of November 2019 are compared with the current voting intention. Then, the Abertzale coalition achieved some positive results, with four deputies in Euskadi and one more for Navarra, although far from its best record (with Amaiur in 2011 and getting 7 deputies).
Now, the EiTB Focus survey, the analysis of the microdata and the trend that was reflected in May lead us to think of remarkable growth in contrast to the general ones of four years ago. EH Bildu could receive 14% of the votes that in November 2019 went to Podemos, a transfer of 10% of votes from abstentions and 7% from the PNV. At the opposite pole, 8% of those who supported them four years ago appear today as undecided.
If the votes in the municipal and regional elections in May are compared, the transfers in favor or against EH Bildu are more moderate. EH Bildu could receive 5% of the votes of those who two months ago bet on Podemos, although, at the same time, 3% of their voters in May could bet on Sumar and 4% on the PSOE.
If these tendencies are confirmed, the struggle between the PNV and EH Bildu would narrow and the second assault after the May 28 elections would be more even. The jeltzales, in any case, still have a comfortable cushion with respect to the abertzale coalition if only the votes in Euskadi are taken into account.
The EiTB Focus survey gives five deputies to both formations, the same as the PSOE, which by the way would achieve its best electoral result in a general election in Euskadi since 2008.
The PP (2) and Sumar (1), meanwhile, would share the other three deputies in Euskadi. The same poll, however, awards one more seat to EH Bildu for Navarra, where the PSOE (2) and the PP (2) would take the other four seats and Geroa Bai, a coalition in which the PNV participates, would be left without representation in Congress.
The final photograph of 23-J could leave a final photo in which both the PNV and EH Bildu claim winners of the second round of their particular fight. The jeltzales would win in votes in Euskadi, they would win the five seats that give the right to their own group and they would only lose one seat in a particularly compromised election. EH Bildu, meanwhile, would prevail in votes, also counting those of Navarra – a reading that was also made on 28-M to claim the winner – and would obtain a group with six deputies. Another thing will be the space and the capacity for influence that the new distribution of seats in Congress can leave for the two big parties.
