Esquerra Republicana did not hide its nervousness when President Pedro Sánchez surprised everyone by calling the general elections a few hours after the municipal ones were held. Things did not go well for Oriol Junqueras’ party on 28-M and the new appointment with the polls did not presage an improvement. The immediate appeal of President Pere Aragonès to build a strategic pro-independence unit in Madrid, frustrated after a few hours by the municipal pacts, did not mitigate the task they were facing: the possible demobilization of the pro-independence voter, the escape of the leftist voter and stop a downward trend evidenced in the last elections.
ERC currently has 13 deputies in Congress, which gives it the hegemony of the independence movement in Madrid despite the loss of two seats after the 2019 electoral repetition. Since then, the Republicans have lost the 2021 Catalan elections against the PSC, although they were able to govern with Junts, and in the municipal elections they lost 300,000 votes and fell from first to third position. The party justified the bump in these elections by the increase in abstention by 6.5 points, but the polls for Sunday predict a loss of between three and five deputies. Hegemony is in danger.
The paradox compared to what is happening in the rest of Spain is that the electoral situation could return the PSC to the first place on the podium in Catalonia after the years of the process, and this would mean a new blow for ERC. Those from Junqueras are confident of consolidating second place because otherwise it would be “very bad news”, they admit. But the poll reflects strong growth in Catalunya de Junts and especially in the PP, which could quadruple its results and go from two to up to eight seats.
To avoid a new setback, ERC has designed a pragmatic campaign for this 23-J, with Gabriel Rufián as the headliner, who moves well in the rally, launching direct and easy-to-interpret messages. And with a slogan – “Defend Catalonia” – that sums up his proposal positively and tries to identify his usefulness against his rivals, PSC, Sumar and Junts. But the problem is tackling the company with a headwind.
The Republicans have seen the expectations of their opponents on the left flank (PSC and especially En Comú Podem, a reference ally of Yolanda Díaz) grow as a result of the polarization with which these elections have been presented (PSOE-Sumar versus PP-Vox). Also on the pro-independence flank, with Junts questioning ERC’s pragmatic strategy at all times.
His role as a partner in the coalition government of Sánchez and Díaz conditioned the campaign. The party has exhibited a defense of the work done, remarking that they have “approved 89% of the legislative work of the Government by negotiating”, compared to what may come, a government of the PP and the extreme right. Combined with a nonconformity that has allowed them to question the progressive character of PSOE and Sumar.
To seduce the pro-independence voter, ERC has exhibited its alliance with EH Bildu, and the story has circulated between self-criticism and realism: “Esquerra’s strategy is possibly not the one that provokes the most enthusiasm in the pro-independence world, but it is the only one that is on the table”, they conclude. The pragmatic drift is also on test this Sunday.
