The elections this Sunday take on the appearance of a second assault in the Basque Country after the municipal and regional elections on May 28. Logically, the main focus of attention for the Basques has to do with what happens today in Spain as a whole, which will mark the sociopolitical context of the coming years. In a Basque key, however, there will be a new battle between the PNV and EH Bildu, who will fight to prevail in votes and seats in the Basque territory, although without losing sight of a PSOE that could achieve, according to the polls, its best result in Euskadi in a general election since 2008.
This second round of the fight between Basque nationalists and independentistas comes after, in May, the Abertzale coalition put the hegemony of the PNV in check. The appointment is also presented as the prelude to a third assault that will take place next spring, with the elections to the Basque Parliament that the Lehendakari will probably coincide with the European ones on June 9. There is a lot of interest in knowing the terms in which this struggle is found, to what extent the PNV is affected and to what extent EH Bildu can continue to grow or has already reached its electoral ceiling.
Considering the May elections, it can be concluded that the PNV is showing wear and tear. In four years it has gone from its electoral ceiling in municipal elections, exceeding 408,000 votes, to a figure very close to its floor in local elections, with 86,000 fewer supports. This 23-J does not arrive, in this sense, at the best moment for the jeltzales, who face an inauspicious appointment, as they are some generals, without having had time to reflect on their first electoral setback in a long time. The PNV, in any case, has been able to carry out a very judicious campaign, giving full prominence to the solvency of its man in Madrid, Aitor Esteban.
The two big doubts are whether the jeltzales will be able to mobilize their electorate, after acknowledging that in May they suffered an abstention from punishment, and, secondly, knowing to what extent the dual vote can hurt them. In the 2015-2016 electoral cycle, the Basque dual vote, a term that has been used to explain how voters vote differently depending on the election, led PNV and EH Bildu to their electoral soil, in favor of state-level parties. This trend dropped drastically in the 2019-2020 cycle, and we will have to see what happens today.
An analysis prepared by the company Silván
The Abertzale coalition, for its part, arrives grown due to its good results in May and looking for a second check on the PNV. Their electoral campaign has been more choral than that of the jeltzales, although they have opted to give Oskar Matute a leading role. Silvan’s analysis
A PP-Vox coalition government would leave the representatives of the PNV and EH Bildu in Madrid out of the game, while at the same time it could stress coexistence in the Basque Country and would lead to a radicalization of positions around the national question. On the opposite level, the eventual continuity of a coalition executive, in this case PSOE-Sumar, would once again guarantee the leading role in Madrid of the two main Basque forces. In between, it remains to be seen what would happen if the PP achieves an exceptional result and needs the support of the jeltzales. This scenario could allow the PNV to appear as the party that prevented the arrival of the ultra-right in government. And it is not little.