All the private polls released during the 23J electoral campaign agreed that the PP would win widely on 23J and could even reach an absolute majority with Vox.
All, except the Center for Sociological Research directed by José Félix Tezanos, highly criticized for being the exception – it gave victory to Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE, although with very loose forks. Finally, it has been the CIS that has been closest to the results of the general elections of the two big parties, although it has also been wrong with the result of Vox and especially that of Sumar.
“We assume the deviation of our prediction on this election night. Congratulations to the institutes that have been able to see the current scenario”, wrote one of the companies in charge on Twitter.
The leader of the Popular Party, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, promised during the campaign that if he governs, the first dismissal would be that of the president of the CIS. “There will not be a Tezanos in my Government and his dismissal will be the first in the Council of Ministers,” said Feijóo.
The latest survey published by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) on July 17 predicted a victory for the PSOE with 32% of support compared to 30% for the PP. With 99.73% of the vote counted, his estimate of the PP would have failed by three percentage points and that of the PSOE by one point.
Adding the highest forks of both blocks, PP and Vox added 169 seats according to the CIS -the same number obtained this 23J- but the sum of the left-wing block of the PSOE and Sumar was far behind, which reached 185 deputies, when it has remained at 153 parliamentarians.
The CIS ‘flash’ survey assigned third position to Sumar with 14% of the votes compared to the 12.31% that Yolanda Díaz’s formation has finally achieved. In this line, Vox as the third force achieved 12.39% of the support, two points above the estimates of the CIS of Tezanos, which placed it as the fourth force.
As for the following forces in number of votes, the CIS estimated an increase for ERC of 0.4% which has finally been a decrease of 1.7%. As for Junts and Bildu, he was right in the increase of Junts x Cat, which obtained results of 1.6%, but failed to forecast a worse result than in 2019 for Bildu, which grew by 0.22%, as reported by Efe.
Likewise, the CUP was left out of Congress when the CIS data ensured that it would be maintained and the PNV lost 0.3% of support against the estimates that foresaw a result equal to that of the previous elections.
Finally, Coalición Canaria was maintained despite the 0.1% increase predicted by Tezanos; Pacma posted a decline of 0.27%, while the CIS forecast a decline of 0.5%. The CIS was right with UPN, which achieved the same results as in 2019 with 0.21% of the votes.
