The president of the PNV Executive, Andoni Ortuzar, preferred to stay with the positive on election night: with five deputies, they will once again have a group in Congress and will be decisive in governability. The jeltzales met, in this sense, with two of their great objectives in very complicated elections for their interests. A more in-depth analysis, on the other hand, offers worrying data for the jeltzals that, far from conformism, should lead to deep reflection.
The PNV faced the generals with one eye on Euskadi and the other following what could happen in Spain as a whole. The jeltzales were very concerned with the possibility that the PP and Vox could achieve an absolute majority. From his point of view, it could mean a setback in terms of self-government and in terms of rights and freedoms, while it would affect coexistence and, probably, would lead to a radicalization of positions in the Basque Country and Catalonia. It was the scenario they feared the most and, fortunately for their interests, it did not happen. The panorama that is drawn today is uncertain, but the PNV breathed a sigh of relief and, probably, it will continue to be key in order to guarantee governability in Spain. It was the best news of the night for the jeltzales.
The PNV, in addition, had drawn a minimum objective: to obtain five deputies and to be able to form its own group. Despite losing a seat, the PNV has achieved that objective and Aitor Esteban will once again lead the so-called Basque Group in Congress. So far the good news.
The elections this Sunday in the Basque Country acquired the appearance of a second assault after the municipal and regional elections of 28-M, in which the PNV had left 86,000 votes. EH Bildu then came out stronger and, although it did not win in votes in the Autonomous Community of Euskadi, it achieved more mayoralties and councillors. Furthermore, taking Navarra into account, he obtained more votes than the jeltzales. The pact with the PSOE allowed the PNV to maintain a good part of its institutional power, however, EH Bildu was waiting for them just at that point for the second assault, and it can be said that he once again put the jeltzales on the ropes.
Strictly attending to the Basque Autonomous Community, the PNV obtained 275,782 votes, compared to 274,676 for EH Bildu; that is, the jeltzales were imposed by less than a thousand votes. Both obtained five seats in this community, the same, by the way, as a very strong PSOE in Euskadi, favored by the context of general elections and achieving its best result since 2008.
The tiebreaker, however, came looking at Navarra. EH Bildu added almost 60,000 more votes in the foral community, while the Navarrese coalition in which the PNV participates, Geroa Bai, obtained very modest results. The Abertzale coalition was second in this community and obtained one more seat, the sixth, which allowed it to win over the PNV.
Furthermore, the PNV only won in Bizkaia, while it was the third political force in Gipuzkoa (after EH Bildu and the PSOE) and fourth in Álava (also ahead of the PP). Within the party there is concern about a map in which the jeltzale hegemony is only clearly outlined in a good part of Bizkaia, while the abertzale coalition gains weight in the whole of the Basque territory.
The most worrying thing, in any case, is yesterday’s result, comparatively taking into account the historical evolution. The almost 276,000 votes of the PNV yesterday are the second worst result in its history, after the one they achieved in the 1989 general elections. At that time, the jeltzales were going through a harsh internal crisis as a result of a split: the ex-lehendakari Carlos Garaikoetxea had just founded EA. The PNV stayed at 252,119 votes.
Yesterday, the PNV lost 104,000 votes compared to the general elections of November 2019, an electoral repetition; The loss is even greater if the data is compared with the general elections of April of the same year: those of Ortuzar have obtained 120,000 fewer votes than in the general elections of April 2019. In addition, they have lost 47,000 votes since the municipal and regional elections in May, just two months ago. The data is devastating and forces reflection, far from complacency.
The PNV had been the only one of the traditional parties that had endured the type in the crisis of representation that took place in the past decade. It had also been the formation that best adapted to the political scene of the Basque Country without ETA. However, the loss of more than 120,000 votes in four years shows that the PNV is at a complicated crossroads and that it is suffering severe wear and tear.
This trend also coincides with a good moment for EH Bildu. In May he achieved his best result in municipal and regional elections. Yesterday, he achieved his best record in a general election, surpassing in votes, although not in seats, the data reached by Amaiur in 2011 (he obtained some 10,000 more votes, including Navarra).
The fight between the PNV and EH Bildu is adjusted to 11 months of elections to the Basque Parliament. The distance in the last Basque elections, in 2020, was 10 seats and 100,000 votes in favor of the PNV. Yesterday, they tied the votes in Euskadi. It is evident that you do not vote the same in general elections and elections for the Basque Chamber, but it is that four years ago, in November 2019, the PNV had obtained almost 160,000 votes for the nationalist coalition in general elections, taking into account only the Basque Autonomous Community.
The fight is very close and will be decided in the coming months. A key point will be knowing who will be the candidates for both the PNV -it remains to be seen if Urkullu is presented for the fourth time- and EH Bildu. In some Basque elections, the useful vote could play in favor of the PNV, which could receive transfers from the PP and, in general, from those who fear an eventual Executive of EH Bildu.
The Abertzale coalition also has limited possibilities for coalitionability, as seen in the post-electoral pacts of the municipal and regional governments. Its main ally in Euskadi is Podemos, although EH Bildu is growing, to a large extent, at the expense of this formation, which could reach the polls next year at low levels. The Abertzale coalition would not have an easy time forging alliances, although an expectation of change could favor it and it is not written that it cannot govern if it achieves a very bulky result and is the first force.
In any case, beyond what may happen next year, it does seem evident that a change of cycle is taking place in the Basque Country, although not in the terms in which EH Bildu claims. It is not a matter of hegemony passing from the PNV to the Abertzale coalition, but rather that the alternation options are going to multiply in the different Basque institutions.
This new paradigm comes, on the one hand, thanks to the fact that EH Bildu is consolidating itself as a credible alternative thanks to a pragmatic turn that is widening its sociopolitical space. What she did not achieve in 2011, she is achieving now, helped by a generational change that favors her.
The PNV, meanwhile, suffers wear due to a host of factors that it would do well to detect. After the May elections, the professor of Private International Law, Juanjo Álvarez, and the lawyer, Aitor Salinas-Armendariz, a grassroots party militant, pointed out some in a report for La Vanguardia. The jeltzales, in addition, a few months ago promoted a process of “active listening” among the militancy that left him some clues about what those sins are causing him to lose a lot of support in a very short time.
Just four years ago, in 2019, the PNV achieved exceptional records in municipal and, to a lesser extent, in general. Only four years later, Basque society does not respond in the same terms. The jeltzales, who have historically played a central and cohesive role in Basque society, have less than a year to detect the reasons for the discontent and try to reconnect.
