A classic principle of electoral theory in Spain maintains that you cannot reach Moncloa without counting on the majority of Catalans and Andalusians. Pure arithmetic: without the wind in favor of the two most populous communities –both add up to 11.8 million votes, a quarter of the electoral census– no success will be reached.
Since the Andalusians left behind the years of socialist hegemony, the PP began to reconsider that thesis. He believed it was possible to achieve a good result by ignoring the complicated Catalan puzzle. Clinging to what in these elections Feijóo called the Andalusia effect. The southern vote became the basis of the new Spanish conservative majority. That was the idea.
And not. It does not work like that. It didn’t work Sunday night. The Socialist Party lost four deputies in Andalusia, in effect, but it largely recovered them in Catalonia where the PSC contributed 19 seats, seven more than in the 2019 elections. Not only did it make up for the defeat in Andalusia, but it provided enough advantage for Pedro Sánchez to go out on the stage of Ferraz street to say that the party’s results had improved. In Catalonia, the ditch was dug that will prevent Feijóo from being president of the Government.
The question is whether someone is going to read these results correctly on Genoa street. If you are wondering why, while in the rest of Spain the Ciudadanos vote has ended up in the PP’s income statement, in Catalonia those votes are in the PSC’s bag. The PP must consider how useful it can be in Catalonia. Because as long as that does not happen, a part of the Catalan electorate that does not feel concerned by the independence movement will continue to have the impression that their project is of no use to them.
