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In all walks of life there are people who take the lead, pioneers who in time achieve great importance despite having sailed against the current in their time. The one that does follow the mainstream of these summer days is this newsletter that says goodbye to its readers until September.

The countess of selfies. The Countess of Castiglione (1837-1899) is known for being a forerunner of the now ubiquitous selfies. But, beyond the anecdote, her role was decisive for Emperor Napoleon III to support the unification of Italy, at a time when women did not have great political weight. Castiglione’s influence was not formal, as she passed through the bedroom of the French emperor, which, together with the long list of her lovers, earned him criticism in her time.

Women of ’98. The big names of the Generation of ’98 are well known; those of men, not those of women. Next to them were authors such as Carmen de Burgos or María Lejárraga who are now beginning to be claimed. The journalist Carmen Estirado maintains that, thanks to them, the female vote and divorce became consolidated rights.

Great expeditions. The great explorers are the pioneers par excellence. Magellan, for example, led one of the most ambitious expeditions, around the world, in which the enigmatic Juan de Cartagena also enlisted to control the mission on behalf of the monarchy. Centuries later, Richard Burton and John Speke reached the source of the Nile, Lake Victoria, although they could not prove that the river originated there. Who confirmed it was Henry Morton Stanley.

President by the courts. George Bush was also a forerunner, but in a different way. His appointment as president of the United States, in 1995, was the first in which the position was awarded by a Supreme Court decision, after the extremely close vote in Florida. “I was the next president of the United States,” was a phrase used repeatedly by his Democratic rival Al Gore.

Leonardo’s codices. Google Arts and Culture has presented Leonardo: inside a genius mind (Leonardo: inside a genius mind), a spectacular interactive journey through the codices of the Tuscan genius. The presentation has been made with artificial intelligence techniques that allow browsing through 3,000 images that include studies on physics, the human body or the famous inventions of the polymath.

A big family. Pedro the Great deserved this nickname due to the Catalan-Aragonese expansion of the 13th century, but he could also have received it due to the size of his offspring. This academic article by medievalist Stefano Cingolani accounts for the sovereign’s 17 children in 28 years, eleven of whom were conceived out of wedlock to six different women. Some spectacular records.

Thucydides’ trap. Resorting to history to try to predict what will happen in the future is possibly an interesting exercise from an intellectual point of view, although its effectiveness in decision-making by rulers is debatable, among other reasons because history does not have to repeat itself. . This is one of the main criticisms of the work of Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University, who in 2015 coined the term Thucydides trap to indicate that in most cases the rise of a new power leads to a war with the old hegemonic power. Allison was referring to the famous Greek historian who narrated the Peloponnesian War, where Spartan power prevailed over the league led by Athens.

According to Allison’s study, of 16 changes in world or regional hegemony since the 16th century, twelve have ended in war, between England and France, between France and the Habsburgs, or between Nazi Germany and the allied powers. The Harvard professor asked whether, in light of historical events, the United States and China could escape the Thucydides trap.

From the middle of the last decade until now, the rise of the Asian giant, despite its difficulties, has not stopped, which has fueled speculation about a future third world war between the two great powers in which Taiwan could be the trigger. . In light of past major wars, that scenario is possible, but as Allison reminds us, possible doesn’t mean inevitable.