In October 2021, an international congress entitled “Dark and silent skies for science and society” was held in Santa Cruz de la Palma. One of the topics of the congress was how to deal with the problem of the large number of satellites launched into a low earth orbit (up to 2,000 km altitude). These satellites reflect sunlight and are visible from the Earth’s surface, making astronomical observations and tourism difficult to enjoy the beautiful starry sky. The recommendations discussed included rules on how to operate satellites, how to reduce them to the minimum number and place them in the lowest possible orbit so that they cross the sky in a short time. The issue has continued to be discussed at international conferences such as the United Nations. However, until now no concrete measure has been reached to regulate the way satellites operate.
Meanwhile, low Earth orbit is getting more and more crowded. The main cause is the high number of satellites that have stopped working, the rockets that carried them there and their fragments that orbit without control. They are called space debris. The European Space Agency estimates that more than 15,000 satellites have been sent into space since the Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik 1 in 1957, and that some have blown up or broken due to collisions, resulting in 130 million. of fragments of space debris one millimeter or larger in size. It is estimated that the number of fragments of space debris larger than one centimeter, capable of seriously damaging satellites, amounts to one million. Apparently, the largest amount of space junk was created by China in 2007, when it tested a ballistic missile with the aim of destroying disabled satellites.
The large amount of space debris is not the only cause of orbital congestion. The number of satellites has also increased rapidly in recent years: if some 15,000 satellites have been launched in the 65 years since 1957, it is estimated that more than 20,000 launches are expected in the next 10 years alone. The development of large satellite networks has been a major contributor to the recent increase in the number of objects in low-Earth orbit. Traditionally, satellite communications have been carried out using satellites in geostationary orbit located at an altitude of about 36,000 kilometers. That height is convenient for relaying communications between distant points on the earth’s surface, because the satellites appear to be stationary when viewed from the earth’s surface. However, the 72,000 km round-trip is a long distance, and it is difficult to carry out high-volume, high-speed communications without time lag. Hence the idea of ??using low orbit satellites. Now, the lower a satellite’s orbit, the faster it moves as seen from the surface, so a low-orbiting satellite crosses the sky in the blink of an eye. Some readers will have seen the International Space Station moving across the night sky. The station orbits at an altitude of about 400 kilometers. Therefore, to achieve the goal with low-orbit satellites, it is necessary to deploy a large number of them so that there are always several in view. It is what is called a great constellation of satellites. Such methods are beginning to be used not only for communications, but also for positioning for navigational purposes and for achieving detailed commercial photographs of the earth’s surface.
Scientists point out that in the near future, collisions with satellites and space debris may pose a serious danger to human forays into outer space. Although space travel is still an expensive service available to only a limited number of people, many companies are beginning to offer it, and it is claimed that in the future it will become much more accessible. If at that point the risk of collision is no longer negligible, that risk could pose a significant obstacle for those companies. According to NASA, the International Space Station has performed thirty evasive maneuvers between 1999 and 2021 to avoid collisions with fragments of space debris. It is not an exaggeration to say that collision avoidance is already an everyday reality in space.
Faced with such an increase in spatial congestion, what regulations has the international community introduced? First, to reduce the number of space debris (the biggest cause of congestion today), major space countries have been taking various measures since the 1980s. For example, when fuel runs out and it is no longer possible to maintain a certain altitude , the satellite uses what little fuel it has left to move into a lower orbit and re-enter the atmosphere as soon as possible. For its part, the rocket that carried the satellite into orbit, in addition to being a large piece of space junk weighing several tons, still contains fuel that can explode at any time. And all the debris created by the explosion will then become space junk, so another important measure is to improve the design of rocket fuel tanks to prevent such explosions.
On the other hand, satellites are constantly monitored with telescopes and radars to prevent collisions, and from time to time maneuvers are carried out to avoid them. The European Union has developed a surveillance system, called the Space Surveillance and Monitoring Association; and Spain has made an important contribution to this program by integrating several telescopes and radars in said surveillance position and analyzing the possibilities of collision.
Despite these efforts to reduce the generation of space debris, regulations to control the number of satellites in low Earth orbit have never been introduced. There is some coordination within the International Telecommunication Union to avoid interference with radio communications, but, with few exceptions, no mechanism has been introduced to assign orbital locations and other factors that reduce the probability of collision with other satellites when a country or a company makes a launch to a low Earth orbit. As mentioned, there are concerns that the increase in the number of satellites will also affect astronomy and stargazing tourism, but no regulations have been introduced yet from that perspective either.
The idea is often repeated that it is not easy to introduce a universal regulation of activities in outer space. The Outer Space Treaty, known as the Magna Carta of Space, entered into force in 1967 and was followed until 1975 by three complementary treaties. However, since then no other treaty relating to space activities has entered into force that covers most of the major countries active in space. Efforts to control the increase in space junk began as voluntary initiatives by the United States, Japan, and European countries; They were followed by the setting of guidelines by the United Nations in the 2000s, but they are not treaties. Nor is any treaty regulating the launch of satellites being debated.
In addition, space is today considered essential terrain for the military operations of several countries. Many of the functions necessary for military operations (such as radio communications, remote observation of the earth’s surface, and positioning) are performed by satellites. The Outer Space Treaty stipulates that weapons of mass destruction may not be placed in orbit; and the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty outlaws nuclear explosions in outer space. However, many other military activities are not regulated by treaty. Debates on the matter have been going on for years; above all, in the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva and in the General Assembly of the United Nations.
Thus, the need to regulate activities in space and also to coordinate multiple space activities, coordinate human activities on the surface and regulate military activities is pointed out. Yet actual regulation is not easy to achieve. In view of the social conflicts around the regulations for the protection of the environment, many have undoubtedly realized that in no area is it easy to regulate the economic activities of countries. However, in the case of global environmental protection, regulations have been established through treaties, although it has taken time, such as greenhouse gas emissions, substances that deplete the ozone layer, and waste. plastics in the oceans.
Why wouldn’t it be possible to introduce regulations for space activities? This is a very interesting intellectual question. Outer space is isolated from the area inhabited by humanity, and even among scientists there is no consensus about the extent to which regulation is necessary. Some legal experts and some political scientists also point out that, in this area, decision-making by the United Nations is based on the consensus method, a method that requires the unanimity of all countries, which makes agreement difficult today. since more countries are engaged in space activities. However, in space, the presence and influence of great powers such as the United States, China and Russia is so prominent that, in practice, it is not possible to expect the rules to be effective if they are established by majority but without agreement of those great powers. And few will consider that an affinity of thought exists between these countries. Faced with this reality, there is a movement for like-minded countries to develop standards and extend them to the entire world; Thus, in the European Union, it seeks to develop its own regulations for the problem of orbital congestion. It remains to be seen how far the debates will go during the second half of this year, when Spain holds the presidency of the European Council. There is a view that it is better to have the necessary rules than not to have them, even among like-minded countries. On the other hand, there are also those who are critical of a situation in which the rules of different groups of like-minded countries can coexist and clash with each other.
The regulation of space activity will also be important on the Moon when man begins to carry out activities on its surface in the near future. Although the lunar surface is vast, the prevailing opinion is that human activity will be concentrated at the North and South Poles, where it is considered easier to extract water. In that case, the number of potential activity sites will be limited, and coordination between active countries may be necessary. There are also a number of issues that require multilateral regulation, such as the management of debris on the lunar surface, the control of space debris generated by orbiting space bases, and ways to ensure that the extraction and use of resources natural are made in a sustainable way. How to create a regime that regulates human activities in space, where it is considered difficult to establish norms through universal treaties? This is a great intellectual challenge that requires imagination, action and sophisticated diplomacy.
Kimitake Nakamura is a Non-Resident Research Fellow at the George Washington University Institute for Space Policy, as well as an Assistant Vice Minister at the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent any of the organizations to which he belongs.)