The result of the votes cast abroad will be known between today and Monday, when the Electoral Board carries out the recount, and it will be known if it affects in any way the current distribution of seats. A priori, changes are unlikely, but the one who has them closest to them is the PP, which is disputing for a few thousand votes for a seat in Madrid, Malaga, Girona and Tarragona. If instead of the distance between seats, we consider the history of the foreign vote, it is the left that has the advantage. But it is important to consider that the new system of voting for residents abroad is not similar to the requested vote, which required the perseverance of Sisyphus to vote, and therefore many more votes have been cast than in previous elections. And, on the other hand, that as soon as the recount begins, the total number of votes cast changes and with it the distance of votes necessary to win a seat grows.
In any case, both in Madrid and in Girona, the PP is the closest a priori to adding another act. In the first case, at the expense of the PSOE, and in the second, at the expense of Junts. In Tarragona the PSC is the candidate to steal a deputy from Junts and in Malaga the holder is the PP and the candidate is the PSOE. There are other constituencies such as Cantabria where there is also little distance, in this case, between PP and Vox, but the lower the census of the province, the less likely the change of seats. In the Cantabrian case, moreover, if Vox loses a seat and the PP wins it, it would not affect the formation of majorities in the Congress of Deputies.
The popular, in any case, aspire to win a seat without losing any and without Vox losing it. Because what he wants is for the left-right balance, now in favor of the former by 172 votes to 171, to be reversed.
This possibility has been speculated in the Madrid press since Monday, which would force the Socialists to speed up their negotiations with Junts, because their abstention would not be enough to guarantee themselves the presidency of the Congress of Deputies – which in principle could be again for Meritxell Batet– and the control of the Board, which is the body that articulates the functioning and the legislative agenda of the Chamber. In any case, the negotiation that could take place if the CERA vote (acronym for Electoral Census of Absent Residents) tilted the hemicycle to the right may be easier than that of a possible investiture, since it is in the authority of the Table, for For example, granting both ERC and Junts their own parliamentary group in Congress, which means more speaking time, more turns for legislative initiatives, and more financial and personal resources for both. At the moment, the PP, which does not renounce to preside over the Chamber, looks at the VAR.
