In no Spanish election campaign had as many polls been published as this 23-J. The vast majority anticipated a scenario in which an alliance of PP and Vox would obtain a majority and oust the coalition of PSOE and Sumar from power. But the mirage faded with scrutiny and, although the PP won clearly, it fell short of expectations and had no chance of governing. Many citizens had the feeling that the tsunami of surveys and trackings had failed miserably. Was it like that?
To begin, let’s analyze the Ipsos survey for La Vanguardia, published on the first Sunday of the campaign. The most striking thing was that PP and Vox had the majority at their disposal with a maximum of 180 deputies, but the other end of the forks contemplated that the bloc on the right was left with an insufficient 170 deputies and the one on the left n achieved 152 (as it was in the end, with a better-than-expected PSOE vote result).
Carles Castro, electoral analyst who collaborates in the interpretation and dissection of the surveys for the readers of La Vanguardia, warned in his article of that Sunday that despite the scenario favorable to the right, “a late reactivation of the “left-wing electorate could lead to a scenario favorable to the blockade” and without a majority of the conservative bloc. The authors of the survey themselves indicated in their report that “electoral alignments, far from being consolidated, are fluid and reactive especially once the campaign begins”.
After the results, Castro sees the decision of the newspaper’s management to offer several scenarios in the form of forks, instead of a single still photo, reaffirmed. “Faced with a scenario of great uncertainty, we chose to be cautious”, he explains, despite the apparent “demoscopic consensus” favorable to the right.
The PP, points out Castro, was probably weighed down by the municipal and regional pacts with the ultra-right and by an end to the campaign with strategic errors based on the expectation of a clear victory. But the expected conservative wave finally activated many undecided voters on the left and turned off some on the right. In addition, the unforeseen outcome now makes it difficult for Feijóo to manage the result.
Prudence and an adequate management of expectations, both in politics and in the media, tend to be good advisors.