The new post-electoral scenario shown by the foreign vote count substantially changes the coordinates in which Spanish politics had moved in recent days. The PP scratches a seat to the PSOE and Pedro Sánchez is no longer worth it only with the abstention of Junts – in addition to the support of the investiture bloc of the last legislature – to continue in Moncloa. Now an affirmative vote of the party of ex-president Carles Puigdemont is required.

Thus, with the new block arithmetic, the PP has 137 seats – the same as Mariano Rajoy obtained in 2016 – and seems willing to forget a good part of the statements made in recent days by its leaders. Now the popular ones do not rule out speaking with Junts “within the Constitution” if necessary, which places the pro-independence formation in the center of the board for both the progressive and the conservative majority.

The deputy secretary for regional and local coordination of the PP, Pedro Rollán, made it clear yesterday: “The Popular Party is willing to speak with each and every one of the political formations as long as they are within the framework of the Spanish Constitution,” he said, being specifically asked about a possible agreement with JxCat. His only veto fell on EH Bildu. And he took the opportunity to remind the PSOE that the abstention of its deputies facilitated the investiture of Mariano Rajoy in 2016.

In the absence of seeing what steps the PP takes, Rollán’s words mark a turning point in the strategy followed so far by the party. Leaders like Isabel Díaz Ayuso have described a possible approach of the PSOE to the formation of Puigdemont as a pact “to govern with criminals and independentists”. For his part, Junts rules out agreements with the right.

And another formation that takes center stage in the new balance of forces is the Canary Islands Coalition. Its only deputy can be key to breaking the tie between 171 deputies between the block on the right –PP, Vox and UPN– and the one on the left –PSOE, Sumar, ERC, Bildu and BNG– with the PNV.

For now, CC has made it clear that it will not support an investiture by Alberto Núñez Feijóo if he governs with Vox. Therefore, if Sánchez obtains the support of the Canary Islands deputy, he will return to the previous stage, in which Junts’ abstention is enough to repeat as president of the government.

What remains unchanged for now is the strategy that Junts drew up on the night of July 23, and which involves shaking off any pressure, now that they are monopolizing all the focus, and not rushing. They know that they have the key to governability and that the negotiation is going to be long. And in it Puigdemont will have a determining role, although he does not formally hold any organic position in JxCat.

In a long message posted yesterday on his Twitter account, the former president warned that they will not give in to “pressure” or “political blackmail.” “Anyone who believes that exerting pressure or practicing political blackmail directly will obtain some tactical benefit, the effort can be avoided. At least in my case, ”he stressed.

Puigdemont asked for “discretion” and demanded that his people exercise extreme “prudence”, because he considers that it is not clear that Sánchez is going to seek his support for a possible investiture. In the opinion of the former president, on paper there are up to three options: that the PSOE abstain and endorse the investiture of Feijóo or another popular, that the PSOE obtain the support of Junts or that there be electoral repetition. And he has already advanced that “in similar circumstances, [the Socialists] preferred to repeat the elections.” “Therefore, it is necessary to maintain discretion and extreme prudence,” he concluded.

The Junts conditions to support the investiture are the holding of a binding referendum and an amnesty law for all causes related to the procés, although in the party there are those who would like a more possible negotiation after the PSOE has given a no for response to any demand that exceeds the constitutional framework.

It also remains to be seen if JxCat negotiates alone with the Socialists or if it goes hand in hand with ERC to set the price for a possible investiture. Both parties have exchanged good words these days to articulate a common front in Madrid, and yesterday several Republican leaders left the door open for a return of Junts to the Catalan Executive. But this possibility would require a well-established strategic agreement between both forces, they warn. And also, JxCat wants to open this process to the CUP and the sovereign entities.

The first key appointment is on August 17, with the constitution of the Congress and the Senate. Until then, there is a lot to negotiate.