The Catalan independence movement has the key to the governability of Spain after the elections on July 23. Above all they have Junts, who was previously left out of any equation, and the former president Carles Puigdemont. Although he lacks an organic position, he is the figure with the greatest ascendancy within the party. And there is the paradox that this situation of influence and power has come hand in hand with the worst results of sovereignism since the process began.
The new scenario represents a new opportunity for JxCat and Esquerra to redo the bridges demolished in recent years or to widen the gap that has separated them for a long time.
At the moment, both forces, accustomed to suspicion, at the official level, are exchanging good words to articulate a common front in Madrid and, if possible, create a space for strategic coordination with parties and entities – a recurring demand from the post-convergents since 2021 -, but mistrust and reluctance are still present despite the good intentions.
President Pere Aragonès demanded in the last plenary of the session that the reproaches be put aside and called for taking advantage of this opportunity to reach an agreement “as if it were the last”. A few hours earlier, upon learning of the agreement between the Republicans and the PSC to join the Barcelona Provincial Government, JxCat had questioned the “honesty and sincerity” of ERC when working for a front that puts a price on together with an eventual investiture of Pedro Sánchez. In the days that followed, since the recount of the foreign vote ended, the dispute between the leaders of the two great families of sovereignty has to do with the relevance of both deputies, although they have the same ones -seven-, the post-convergents assume that His ex-partner – who does not want to carry the weight of a repeat election and the blockade, while betting on the revival of a progressive government – ??will facilitate the inauguration, while the Republicans try to assert their share of the pie and stress that it is identical in size to that of Junts.
As regards the pro-sovereignty front, there have been informal contacts, but there is nothing concrete for now since Turull –general secretary and regular interlocutor of the Republicans– is still in Brazil, on a visit he had planned since last February. ERC has already made some gesture, such as pointing out that formulas could be studied so that Junts returns to the Government of the Generalitat -as long as there is a well-established strategic agreement- and that the post-convergents participate in the dialogue table, even if they do not have members in the Catalan Executive. That last point was a reason for discrepancy two years ago now and what led JxCat to drop the hook from that forum, by proposing party leaders instead of the then ministers, as requested by Aragonès.
With these wickers, it is JxCat who monopolizes all the focus and in the formation of Jordi Turull the feeling has spread since election night that there will be an electoral repetition if nothing happens along the way and the PSOE does not move. “If we are decisive, there will be a mambo,” a leader predicted in this sense during the campaign. And the mambo can be both inward and outward. For now, Puigdemont warns that they will not bow to “pressure” or “political blackmail” and rules out that the negotiation is personal. He wants to put the political conflict at the center of it.
Junts’ demands are clear: transfer of powers to organize a referendum and approval of an amnesty law. The PSOE, in turn, closes the door to both demands and sets the constitutional framework as the limit. In JxCat they are clear that a personal solution for the expresident with the same effects as the amnesty is not valid, since in recent years the formation has reproached ERC for that strategy over and over again. “This situation traps us all,” points out a member of the candidacy, who believes that the only possibility for the referendum demand to be parked is that there be an amnesty for all those legal cases related to the process and the mobilizations after the 1-O.
The scenario is complex and the only thing that seems clear for now is that things are going to take a long time. The acting President of the Government has gone on vacation and everything indicates that the negotiating machinery will be activated after the constitution of the Lower House on August 17, where it will be seen if there is a first show of goodwill on both sides. Junts needs flexibility to have its own group and the PSOE needs the post-convergents to take over the presidency of Congress.
For now, the instruction in the post-convergent ranks is to be calm and no one rushes. Since election night, they have shaken off any pressure from an eventual blockade and have tried to return the ball to the socialist court while recalling that only a few weeks ago the PSC, which is now asking for responsibility and that the result of the socialists in Catalonia be taken into account , maneuvered at the last minute to deprive Xavier Trias of the mayoralty of Barcelona.
So, they hope that it is Sánchez who makes the move. Sumar was quick to put the former deputy of the commons Jaume Asens in the arena as a bridge man with Puigdemont and the rest of the independence movement, but in JxCat, despite the good relationship they have with him, they respond that the negotiation is with the socialists, who, in any case, will have the presidency of the government.
During the campaign there were open doors to participate in governance at some point, with the premise of collecting in advance any counterpart that is started, but the former president slammed the possibility of lending votes to the PSOE on the day of the central act, which it was held in his village, Amer. He did it in an interview. Now there are party cadres who would like to use the influence that the ballot box has given them and try to achieve tangible and more viable issues than the referendum and amnesty. But these voices, although in the official discourse there are nuances to cling to – Republicans also read them that way – doubt that there is room for that option “due to the vehemence” of the messages and the demands of the JxCat campaign, piloted by by people trusted by Puigdemont. “Nothing is clear yet, we’ll see,” says another supporter of the entente.
From outside the formation, it is considered that the scenario after the July 23 elections could be a landing strip for the pragmatic sector of the formation, so that in the next four years it plays a central role in Congress. But inside it doesn’t look the same. “The executive does not command and does not decide,” laments one of those voices.
“Even if they offered us an economic concert, after what we have said, we could not accept it. Another thing is that if that happens, the party will implode and there will be those who will lend themselves ”, points out a voice from the post-convergent space, who believes that the influence of Junts in Congress this time is greater than Convergència i Unió ever had, more because of the circumstances than by arithmetic.
The truth is that, in JxCat they do not expect great offers from the PSOE to enter. They believe that any movement is subject to what the PP candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, does. They know that if they try to force an investiture debate and the timer for the electoral repetition is set in motion and the Socialists make concessions to Junts and ERC in vain, and in advance, they can pay dearly at the polls if they vote again. Likewise, a source from the post-convergent space points out that in the case of electoral repetition they already have their message: they will exhibit coherence and that they have fulfilled their word to stand up; and believes that the PSOE will do the same and show the fact of having been inflexible with the demands of the independence movement.
However, repetition is not a good scenario. “None of them are,” says a Junts leader. “We left the Government because of the strategy with Madrid, among other things. If we negotiate, badly, because we are not coherent, and if there is repetition, also, because we can lose out ”, sums up this member of the leadership, aware that going back to the polls can be worse because in each electoral appointment, he points out, they lose votes. “Perhaps some movement can be made to get out of that situation,” he considers, although he sees the margin for maneuver as very narrow.
A week ago, at the first meeting of the JxCat management after the elections, the loss of voters was put on the table, but he tiptoed on that matter. Self-criticism is covered up by the fact that they have the key to Spanish governance, although Puigdemont points out that this is “circumstantial” and that the important thing is to address the conflict.