That independence is the key piece for the governability of Spain becomes another opportunity for Junts and Esquerra to repair the damaged relations in recent years, or to widen the gap that has separated them for some time. There is the paradox that this position of influence comes with the worst results of sovereignty from the beginning of the process.
At the moment, the two forces, accustomed to suspicion, are officially addressing each other with good words to build a common front in Madrid and, if possible, create a space for strategic coordination, but mistrust and reluctance are still present. President Pere Aragonès demanded in the last plenary session that the reproaches be left behind and asked to take advantage of this opportunity “as if it were the last”. A few hours earlier Junts had questioned the “honesty and sincerity” of ERC, after the agreement of the Republicans with the PSC to join the government of the Diputació de Barcelona was made public.
Since the count of the external vote was finished, the dispute has to do with the relevance of the deputies of each other, although both have seven. The post-convergents take it for granted that their ex-partner – who does not want to bear the weight of an electoral repeat and the blockade and bets on the re-issue of a progressive government – ??will facilitate the investiture, while the republicans are trying to assert their supports and remember that they are as necessary to build a majority as those of Junts.
In order to arm the sovereignist front, there have been informal contacts, but there is nothing concrete for now, since Jordi Turull, general secretary of Junts, is still in Brazil, on a visit he had planned since February. ERC has made some gestures, such as pointing out that formulas could be studied for Junts to return to the Catalan Government, as long as there is a well-established strategic agreement.
With these elements, it is Junts, which is asking for a referendum and amnesty as conditions for investing Pedro Sánchez, the party that is grabbing all the attention. The PSOE closes the door to both demands and puts the constitutional framework as the limit. For this reason, in the formation of Turull there is a vision from the election night: there will be a repeat election if the socialists do not move.
Carles Puigdemont, who despite not having any organic position is the most influential figure within the party, warns that they will not give in to “pressure” or “political blackmail”, and rules out that the negotiation is personal. He wants to put the political conflict in the center.
It is clear from Junts that a personal solution for the ex-president with the same effects as the amnesty is not valid, given that in recent years the formation has criticized ERC for this strategy. “This situation traps us all”, points out a member of the candidacy, who believes that the only possibility for the referendum to be stopped is for there to be an amnesty for all legal cases related to the process and the mobilizations after the 1-O.
The scenario is complex and the only thing clear is that the process will be long. The instruction of the post-convergent management is that there is calm and that no one rushes. In addition, they brush off the pressure in relation to an eventual blockade and think it is the PSOE that should move the table. They hope that Sánchez – not Sumar – will make the move.
There are cadres in the party who would like to use the influence that the polls have given them and try to achieve tangible and more viable issues than the referendum and amnesty. But these voices, even though there are nuances in the official speech – the Republicans also read it this way – doubt that there is room for this option “due to the vehemence” of the messages and the demands of the campaign, piloted by people from the confidence of Puigdemont. “The executive does not command and does not decide”, laments one of these voices.
“Even if they offered us an economic concert, after what we have said we could not accept it. Another thing is that, if it happens, the party will implode and there will be those who lend themselves to it”, points out a voice from the post-convergence space, who believes that Junts’ influence in Congress this time is more important than it has ever been to have Convergence and Union, more by circumstances than by arithmetic.
Although for some it is the most likely option, the electoral repeat is not a good scenario. “It’s not at all,” says a Junts leader. “We left the Government because of the strategy with Madrid, among other things. If we negotiate, badly, because we are not consistent, and if there is repetition, also, because we can lose strength”, summarizes this member of the management, aware that going back to the polls could be worse.
A week ago, at the meeting of the Junts executive, the loss of votes was brought up, but not much attention was paid to it. Self-criticism is covered up by the fact that they are keys to governance.
And if there is a repeat election… there is already a speech. A member of the candidacy explains that they will show consistency and that they have fulfilled the word they had given, to stand up, and believes that the PSOE will do the same: it will show the fact that it has been inflexible with the demands of independence.