One cold day in January 2016, at the beginning of that primary period in the United States, the conservative candidate Donald Trump launched a prediction in the auditorium of a small Christian university in Iowa that, surprising as it may sound, has become dogma of faith among his faithful.
“I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and I wouldn’t lose a voter,” he said verbatim.
His ability to bluff was already well known by then. At that time, not even he could have imagined that eleven months later he would win the presidency and even less that, after losing his re-election in 2020, he would receive a string of criminal charges as an inheritance to his management in the White House.
It is true that there are no shots on the famous Manhattan promenade, but the accusations have the ability to sink the most painted. Pure Teflon, that is said.
Trump is on trial for misrepresentation to hide the alleged purchase of the silence of a porn actress with whom he was linked, as well as for the alleged theft of highly classified secrets and his attempt to destroy evidence. In addition, he is awaiting indictment as the instigator of the failed coup d’état on January 6, 2021 and for his attempt to revoke the electoral result in Georgia.
He was right in 2016: he does not lose his voters even with shots. Despite all these alleged misdeeds, the poll conducted by The New York Times s/Sienna College indicates that he leads the Republican field in 2024 by a 37% advantage over the second, Governor Ron DeSantis, a difference in the absence of less than half a year to the start of the primaries that would be considered insurmountable under normal conditions to end up being chosen as the candidate. In this “so wild” case, however, everything is more complex and unpredictable. The trials threaten to overlap with the crucial period in which the candidate is decided.
After special prosecutor Jack Smith expanded last week on the matter of the documents found in Mar-a-Lago, yesterday the manager of the Florida mansion, Carlos de Oliveira, the third defendant along with $100,000 bail, was released. to Trump and another employee, Walt Nauta.
And in another judicial setback, a Georgia judge on Monday denied the former president’s request to stop the investigation in that state. Fanni Willis, the prosecutor, assured this weekend that “we are ready to move forward.” This was interpreted as an indication that the investigations have concluded and the imputation may soon take place.
But if one thing is clear from the survey, it is that the conservatives are moving on from the accusations and across all demographic groups, young and old, educated or not, territories, urban or suburban, and ideological wings of the party, Trump prevails, even though day by day they are plus his legal problems.
The former president would have 54%, while DeSantis would reach 17%. The rest –Mike Pence, Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, tie with 3%– are testimonials, without options, always based on these data.
The governor of Florida fails even in the central point of his electoral campaign, which is to preach that he is more eligible for president than Trump, and that his government would be more effective. While he didn’t resort to bringing up the charges against his former friend, DeSantis alluded to the allegations by saying that “if he’d cleaned up the swamp like he promised, he wouldn’t be in the mess he’s in now.” And he remarked that voters don’t like the usual insults that the former president uses.
The true anti-Trump faction among the Republican ranks hovers around one in four conservative voters, a small number to unseat him.
Only 19% of the conservative electorate acknowledges that Trump’s conduct after his defeat in 2020 poses a threat to democracy in the United States. And only 17% observe that the former president has committed serious federal crimes, despite the accusations already voted on by grand juries in New York and Florida. The January 6, 2021 thing was just a picnic.