During the week prior to the day of the general elections, on July 23, the expectations of the PP candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, deflated by almost five points. According to the CIS, on Monday, July 13, the popular leader had 27.9% in voting intentions, a figure that gradually declined until it reached 23% on the day of reflection.
It should be remembered that the last week of Feijóo’s campaign was complicated. The lies that were attributed to him face to face, the errors about the PP’s policy regarding pensions, the photos of Marcial Dorado and his absence from the debate to four from RTVE, in addition to other errors of the campaign itself, sank the intention of voting of the PP.
According to the CIS, on the last Monday before the general elections, Feijóo had a 32.8% preference as future president of the government, and on July 22 it did not reach 26%.
The pronounced decline of the PP in the last week contrasts with that of the rest of the political leaders. The acting President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, barely changed his voting intention, remaining between 26 and 29%.
The two political forces that had a more marked rise during the week prior to 23-J are Vox and Sumar. The far-right party started Monday with 8% of voting intentions, and ended the campaign with 10.7%. For its part, Sumar grew more than three points from 12.2% to 15.6% in voting intentions.
The CIS study measures the intention to vote for each party day by day during the last week. Thus, it is possible to observe the comparison between the intention to vote of each party before and after the debate to three -which should have been to four- between Pedro Sánchez, Yolanda Díaz and Santiago Abascal.
The party that lost the most intention to vote after the debate was precisely the one that did not show up. The PP lost almost two points (from 24.4% to 22.5%), so it would be demonstrated, according to the CIS data, that it was a mistake not to show up for the meeting.
Yolanda Díaz (1.3%) and Pedro Sánchez (0.5%) were the most benefited from the debate, while Vox lost seven tenths in voting intention.
The CIS also details voting preference by sex and by age. In this sense, it stands out how Pedro Sánchez prevails by almost ten points (9.8) over Alberto Núñez Fejijóo among women as a preference to become Prime Minister. While 38% of the women surveyed opt for Sánchez, 28.2% do so for Feijóo. It also highlights that Abascal does not reach 5% preference among women.
This difference contrasts with that of men, in which both candidates are separated by just over four points. Sánchez prevails with 33.9%, while Feijóo obtains 29.2% of the preference among men.
The preference as President among young people also favors the leader of the PSOE, who leads Feijóo by thirteen points among young people between 18 and 24 years of age.
The CIS study also shows the belief of citizens about who would be the next president of the Government. Without yet knowing who will be, it is clear, once we have seen the results of the elections, that they have been a surprise.
Only one in three respondents believed that Pedro Sánchez would repeat as head of the Executive, while more than half thought that the next president would be Alberto Núñez Feijóo.
The coalition between the PSOE and Sumar brought together 51.5% of the votes cast by post, according to the CIS. In contrast, the sum between PP and Vox remained at 34.1%.
