The left mobilized and the PP deflated in the days before the elections

The Spanish vote suffered intense turbulence during the final days of the July 23 election campaign, when polls could not be published. Between the 13th and the day of reflection, a significant number of voters decided to go to vote or change at the last minute the ballot paper that would later be deposited in the ballot box, according to the methodological study on voting trends published yesterday by the Sociological Research Center (CIS) with a sample of more than 27,000 interviews. During those decisive days, two major trends took place. On the one hand, a weakening of the expectations of the PP, especially marked after the three-party debate, which Alberto Núñez Feijóo did not attend; and, on the other, a mobilization of the left-wing voter that caused the PSOE to obtain one million more votes and for Sumar to improve his voting intention during the 72 hours that preceded the opening of the electoral colleges .

The biggest loser during those days before the elections was the PP. On the 13th, hours after the televised face-to-face with Pedro Sánchez, Feijóo had a direct vote intention of 27.9% among the voters who chose to go to the polls. However, after the three-way debate, those expectations deflated to 22.5%. Almost five and a half points less in six days. During the closing of the campaign and the day of reflection (about 5% of respondents had not yet decided their vote) the PP stagnated at 23%. In the middle there was the interview with TVE in which the popular president defended that his party had always revalued pensions with inflation. It cannot be said that there was a transfer to the PSOE in this direct intention to vote that the PP lost, since the socialists maintained their expectations during the electoral campaign at close to 28%. Yes, there was a growth of Vox, which in the hours before the elections improved its expectations.

Yolanda Díaz benefited from the last few days of the campaign in which she did not stop growing. Sumar’s direct voting intention was 12% on July 14. However, during the reflection day it rose to 15.6%. The turning point for Díaz was, and this is shown by the CIS data, the three-way debate, a contest from which the formation consolidates above 14%, unheard of until then.

The CIS shows that the left mobilized in a remarkable way during the last days of the campaign, while the right worsened its supports. On the day before the elections, the bloc of the PSOE and Sumar achieved a vote intention of 41.9%, while the right-wing bloc, the PP and Vox, reached 33.7%. On the 13th, the left had 40.3% and the right, 35.9%.

The CIS also details voting preference by gender and age. The PSOE achieved majority support, both in postal ballots and in direct intention, among women. 38% of female voters opted for the Socialists, compared to 28% who chose the PP. Sánchez also forged his result in the youth vote. 33.7% of respondents aged 18 to 24 voted for the PSOE, while just over 20% voted for the PP.

Today, Pedro Sánchez has options to get an investiture and this is possible thanks to the fact that the PSOE brought together many potential voters from the left and other formations during the electoral campaign. According to the CIS study, 70% of PSOE voters in 2019 said they would take the socialist ballot again, a figure higher than the 64.4% said in the June pre-election survey, by the same public body. In addition, almost one in five former voters of Unides Podemos said they would vote for the PSOE, a percentage that in the CIS pre-election survey was 15.9%. The great result of the socialists in Catalonia can be explained, in part, by the fact that 20.9% of the supporters of the Commons in 2019 and 15.7% of the ERC responded that they would opt for the socialist ballot. Sánchez finally managed to reduce the potential exodus of PSOE voters to the PP from 9.1% in June to 7.4%. The transfer was decisive.

These differences are widened in the postal vote, in which the loyalty of socialist voters reached 72% and the transfer to the PP was only 1.7%. 30.9% of respondents who had opted for remote voting acknowledged having voted for the PSOE, while 20.6% answered that the PP. Sumar got 20.6% of support and Vox, 7.8%. The coalition with options to form Government, therefore, achieved 51.5%; on the other hand, the right obtained 34.1%.

Did the fear of Vox or the call to “repeal Sanchism” influence the vote during the electoral campaign? Two out of three respondents answered the CIS that they decided their choice to support political proposals that they do like. However, 17.5% thought they would vote not because of their preference, but to oppose the political proposals of other formations.

The Spaniards replied to the CIS that they mostly believed that Feijóo would be president of the government. Half of the respondents believed it. Instead, only one in three bet that it would be Sánchez. Regarding the preference as the future president of the Spanish government, Feijóo also suffered a notable decline during the electoral campaign. On July 13, 32.8% showed their sympathy for the PP candidate, a percentage that dropped to 25.9% during the reflection day.