“This is fixed with money.” A regular in the Ritz salons with duplicate surnames and a starched shirt collar dismissed the Catalan demands with that phrase when the process was only sensed by gifted noses and the problem was not a political conflict but a host of clichés. With money -and much more- CiU invested José María Aznar in 1996 and, in Madrid, they got used to “buying” stability and happiness. Claiming the money united the Catalan parties on September 29, 2005 to approve the Statute proposal in the Parliament of Catalonia. Money… and the chicken with which Francesc Homs drew laughter and applause at dawn: “Centuries ago they took away the chicken – which gave big, blond eggs – for the right of conquest. Now it is in Madrid, and it is a question of recovering it”.
Neither the Statute nor the financing agreed between Artur Mas and José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero, nor the subsequent realization with a Generalitat presided over by the PSC, were what was expected. The territorial distribution of resources was officially declared “unfair” by Ángel de la Fuente at the request of Cristóbal Montoro. The reform has been stuck since 2014 and the Statute pacts reinterpreted by the Constitutional Court remain unfulfilled. The third additional provision – it was to last 7 years – is paid in more installments than a millennial mortgage; and the tax consortium never saw the light. The attempts of the governments of Mariano Rajoy ended in grotesque –clean air is a contribution to the common fund, raised a PP baron–; and those of Pedro Sánchez, in a drawer pending a calendar always in the electoral campaign.
Partisanship has made updating funding an impossible multilateral reform. The models applied are the result of the involvement and wear and tear of the Catalan governments and the adherence, active or passive – I vote against, I take the extra money – of the rest of the communities. Without a prior State-Generalitat bilateral negotiation, there is no new autonomous system, but at the same time the asymmetry beyond the Basque Country, Navarra and the Canary Islands is ruled out. In 2015, in the Palau de la Generalitat it was admitted that “it is easier to achieve independence than the fiscal pact” and the ballot boxes were placed.
After a decade making the chicken dizzy, shouting independence, with prisoners and leaders abroad, the Socialists intend to tempt ERC and Junts with an omelette to invite Pedro Sánchez. The negotiation with the PNV and Bildu is not about money – that was resolved in the transition – but about electoral competition between nationalists, so the key is how to seduce the Catalan independence movement.
“Financing does not solve anything”, they warn in the Palau de la Generalitat. “We are not one more, if the conflict has to be resolved, it will be face to face”, they settle while waiting for a proposal from the PSOE. With money the Catalan conflict is not fixed but ghosts are awakened between territories. The Generalitat will be in all the forums where more resources are discussed – they guarantee in Palau – but like all prices, the price of votes has also “risen”.
The PSOE can promise to grease the coffers of the Generalitat, look for formulas to reduce the debt and dilute the fiscal deficit, try to empower the families of Junts with numbers and infrastructure projects… Measures can be re-studied to bring amnesty closer without being one –Didn’t the PSOE already agree to that with the ERC?– and shield –again– Catalan as if the courts did not exist. But the decision on the vote of the 7 Junts will remain in the hands of Carles Puigdemont.
La Moncloa and ERC believe that the pragmatic convergents can push the former president, the phones ring but who influences Puigdemont? The expresident dispatches each investigative gesture with tweets. The last one, by Yolanda Díaz: Reform the regulations to use Catalan in Congress? The Junts initiative in the Senate declined after fifty extensions urged by the PSOE… Trust is key in a negotiation and Puigdemont has already said that he would not buy Sánchez “not even a second-hand car.”
To start, Minister Félix Bolaños calls for realism in the negotiation on a playing field that is not governed by pragmatism and has “uncertainty” by name. Junts imposed a pause even to designate negotiators. If in the PSOE they already wrinkled their noses with the name of Míriam Nogueras before the elections, now with Puigdemont…
At ERC they wait and despair. First to Sánchez and then to Junts. They admit that negotiating alone with the PSOE does not make sense no matter how many bridges are built. The Republicans uncovered their cards during the campaign –dialogue table, transfer of Rodalies, fiscal deficit– and they were already harshly rejected by Jordi Turull. In the battered ranks of ERC in Congress, Sánchez is expected to “surprise us” with his offer of a pact and in Junts they reply that he “will not dare” with amnesty and self-determination. “The finger and the moon”, they repeat.
While Marta Rovira warns of the “dire consequences” of an electoral repetition, in Junts they limit themselves to replying with “it depends on Sánchez” and remember that the last two presidents were elected in a “second round”. The trend in ERC at the polls is downward and Junts, “even when it loses, it loses well.” A convergent classic.
The unknown is the future of the lost votes of the independence movement. The question is who is punished by electoral repetition and whether or not those votes are recoverable in Catalan elections to stand up to Salvador Illa’s PSC. ERC cannot miss the opportunity, while the leadership of Junts “maintains its position” -leave the Government, resign from three councils…-, with the aim of overcoming ERC and once again being the pro-independence pal de paller.
The Catalan legislature will technically run out. President Pere Aragonès maintains regular contact with his former associates, Puigdemont included. After the vote for the composition of the Congress Table, the institutional agenda could lead to a meeting. Both are scheduled to meet on the 21st at the Universitat Catalana d’Estiu in Prada de Conflent. Aragonès would like to link the unity of action of the independence movement in Madrid with the stability of his Government and a commitment to cross support after the elections to Parliament. And only Puigdemont (and the polls) have the answer to all questions.