Some French analysts, such as Professor Bertrand Badie, claim that the conflict in Ukraine is not a world war – at least not yet – but “a globalized war”. This semantic nuance is crucial. The war confrontation is, in effect, circumscribed to a limited scenario, but its economic and geopolitical ramifications affect the entire planet. The coup in Niger is a clear example, as it seems inseparable from Russia’s push to extend its influence in Africa.

The military junta that took power in Niamey on July 26 is becoming radicalized, with the risk of escalation that this entails. His latest announcements leave no doubt: the end of defense cooperation with France – which has 1,500 soldiers deployed in the country – and the dismissal of the Nigerien ambassadors in Paris, the United States, Nigeria and Togo, who have not accepted the ‘authority of the coup plotters.

The deposed president, Mohamed Bazoum, who remains detained in his palace but has been able to communicate with the outside world, wrote a dramatic article in The Washington Post, in which he warned that if the coup plotters get away with seva, there will be “devastating consequences for our country, our region and the whole world”.

According to Bazoum, who came to power after an election, in 2021, the fate of Niger may be the same as that of neighboring countries, such as Mali or the Central African Republic, whose rulers make use of “Russian criminal mercenaries of Wagner, to the detriment of the rights and dignity of its peoples”. “With an open invitation from the coup plotters and their regional allies, the entire central Sahel region would fall under Russian influence through the Wagner Group, whose brutal terrorism has been fully exposed in Ukraine,” stressed Bazoum, who warned of the rise that jihadist movements like Boko Haram could have, with attacks and the indoctrination of youth in anti-Western hatred. By all means, he asks for the support of the United States Government and the entire international community to “help restore our constitutional order”.

The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs considered that only the legitimate Nigerien authorities can break the military collaboration with Paris. However, if the coup is consolidated, the French troops will be forced to leave, sooner or later, as they already did in Mali and Burkina Faso. Paris is trying to preserve some pride in the face of an inevitable outcome that will seal the fiasco of its ambitious and costly policy in the Sahel since 2013.

In addition to de facto inviting French troops to leave, as their use of a base and the status of soldiers in the country no longer has legal support, Paris suffered another unfriendly measure, the suspension of broadcasts in Niger territory of the France 24 and RFI channels, which devote extensive coverage to African news. The European Union described the decision as “unacceptable” and condemned the fundamental rights violations being committed by the coup junta.

The attempt to mediate by the Economic Community of West African States (CEDAO) failed. The strongman in Niamey, General Abdourahamane Tiani, refused to receive the emissaries, who were also unable to interview Bazoum. Diplomatic management had to explore some way of approach before the expiry of the ultimatum, given by ECOWAS, on Sunday, for the coup plotters to back down and restore Bazoum to office, a possibility that is now increasingly remote. The internal situation seems to have stabilized, as suggested by the lifting of the curfew, which had been in force since the day of the putsch.

Spain was finally able to repatriate some of its nationals residing in Niger. An Air Force Airbus 330 transported 74 passengers of 18 nationalities from Niamey to the Torrejón de Ardoz base in Madrid. Sending the plane required diplomatic arrangements that took several days. About twenty Spaniards have already left the country on one of the planes sent by France.

International economic pressure continues on the coup junta. The Netherlands joined other EU partners in suspending aid as well. These measures are painful for a very poor country that has a national budget that is 40% dependent on foreign aid.