On July 10, according to the survivors, a wooden canoe about 20 meters in length left the beaches of Fas Boye, just over a hundred kilometers from Dakar, the capital of Senegal. 101 people of Senegalese nationality and one from Guinea-Bissau who wanted to reach the Canary Islands were traveling on it. For reasons that are still unknown, the boat drifted until August 14 when a Spanish fishing boat rescued it in Cape Verde with 38 survivors – and seven corpses – on board. The other 63 missing migrants are presumed dead. After this tragedy in the waters of the Atlantic, a change in the trend on the Canary Islands route has emerged, marked by the political and economic crisis in Senegal, which has caused the arrivals of kayaks to the Canary Islands to skyrocket. And, according to experts, the crest of the wave has not yet arrived.

The Ministry of the Interior is focused on Senegal, due to the worrying number of Senegalese who are entering Spain irregularly. The numbers speak for themselves. According to a police count to which La Vanguardia has had access, of all the migrants who reached the Canary coasts in 2021, 2.54% had Senegalese nationality. Last year the data was practically the same: 2.55%. However, so far this year the figure has already risen to 24.47%. Ten times more on a route where traditionally the majority nationality is Moroccan. In 2022, 95.10% of the people who arrived on the islands were Moroccans; while this year the percentage is plummeting to 65%, in favor of the Senegalese.

The origin of the political crisis, which has led to migration, dates back to June 1. That day, the two-year prison sentence of opposition leader Ousmane Sonko, a mass star among young Senegalese, was announced for a crime of “youth corruption”, despite the fact that the convicted person believes that everything is a political setup. The sentence, which parks his candidacy for the 2024 presidential elections, caused strong riots in the capital that resulted in more than thirty deaths. The authorities delayed his entry into prison to avoid further riots, but at the end of July he went to jail, provoking a new wave of citizen protests.

Police sources in immigration matters explain that the social unrest in Senegal has caused an increase in departures for two reasons. The first is the exponential increase in the number of candidates for immigration: young people who are precarious and dissatisfied with the few opportunities that see the possibility of change in their country increasingly remote. The second goes through the “certain willingness of the country’s authorities to let out social discontent.” That is to say, a police relaxation in the control of the coasts from which the cayucos leave for the Canary Islands. Without forgetting that in countries like Senegal, remittances – the money that migrant workers send to their families in their countries of origin – account for almost 5% of GDP.

Mafias that traffic in immigrants are making a killing in Senegal. In 2022, five cayucos from Senegal arrived in the Canary Islands. This summer alone, more than 30 boats of this type with more than two thousand people on board have arrived via the deadliest migratory route. As explained by the director of Emergencies of the Red Cross, Iñigo Vila, the cayucos –unlike the little boats or the rubber boats– arrive much more crowded. There are ships that can crowd 200 immigrants. Depending on the Senegalese coast from which they depart, there are days and days of navigation in which people are more exposed to weather incidents, technical engine failures or food shortages, according to Vila’s analysis. “The risk is greater than trying to reach the peninsula. On the Canary Islands route if you don’t make landfall on the islands…”. Two years ago a canoe that was going to the Canary Islands appeared in Barbados with 15 corpses.

Statistics warn that the arrival of canoes will increase in the coming months. The Red Cross Emergency Director recalls that from September to November the weather is usually more conducive to navigation on this route, something that criminal organizations know inside out to boost their business. From the Interior, according to ministerial sources, they are monitoring this route with special attention, although they consider that the threshold to set off the alarms has not yet been passed, as happened in 2006 with the crisis of the cayucos, also in the Canary Islands.

The latest report on irregular immigration from the Interior reflects, for the first time in the last twelve months, that arrivals have increased compared to the previous year. 3.3%, marked by the rise of the Algerian route due to the collaboration of Morocco. However, Spain remains the European country that contains the most immigration.