The writer Rebecca Solnit explains to The Guardian that after years of denouncing climate change deniers, she now has to devote efforts to fighting the skeptics. Those who doubt that the approved policies are of much use and think that the reality is getting worse every day.
I said skeptics. I could say pessimists, decrecentists (supporters of degrowth) or collapseist. Each with its nuance. The truth is that there is a fierce battle between gradualists and non-gradualists. Among which they think the climate crisis can be managed with a transition through renewable energy, putting a price on carbon and relying on technological advances. And those who, on the contrary, think that the climate crisis is so severe that it is necessary to make drastic decisions that change our way of life.
This summer has been productive for pessimists. Four simultaneous heat waves in different parts of the planet. Historical temperature records both on land and in the oceans. And a Secretary General of the United Nations who says we are in the Age of Ebullition.
I feel scientifically incapable of determining where the truth lies. But I must confess that it has been a revelation for me to differentiate between the flow of CO2 emissions and the stock of CO2 (accumulated) in the atmosphere. I had always thought that with the decrease in emissions in the atmosphere, one day, however distant, the warming would begin to subside. But what matters so much are not the emissions, but the stock, the accumulated CO2. You can lower emissions, but the earth does not “cool”.
The best mental model to represent how CO2 works in the atmosphere is the bathtub. The greater the difference between the water that comes out of the tap (our emissions) and that which goes down the sink (thanks to the action of tropical forests and oceans), the higher the water level in the bathtub (the carbon accumulated in the atmosphere).
The bathtub simulation (model developed by Tom Fiddaman of MIT) better reflects where we are. And frankly, with CO2 emissions still rising, the reality is that we’re not doing so well.
