If no one has been surprised by the death of Yevgueni Prigozhin, Carmen Claudín, an expert on Russia and the post-Soviet space, even less so. “I can’t say that I thought it could happen now, it could just as well have happened a month ago or several months from now… If they didn’t eliminate him in one way or another at the time – of his rebellion in June – if they didn’t arrest him to make some kind of trial for some pedagogical purpose …, if all this did not happen, it was clear that they had reached –Putin and Prigozhin– some kind of agreement, the content of which we do not know. The only thing we could know was that it included saving his life, sparing his soldiers… To make it credible to Prigozhin they had to ask him for something in return. It is purely speculative, but it would be a role in Africa, a kind of Prigozhin the African, like Scipio…”
That agreement would have occurred in a meeting between Prigozhin and Wagner commanders with Putin and senior state officials on June 29, five days after their rebellion. It is not known what has happened since then. Did the appearance of Prigozhin, on the eve of his death, in a video supposedly in Africa give the idea that he could continue working there?
Yes. I redeem myself by working for the country… That’s the idea.
To what extent did he work for Putin in Africa and to what extent in his own businesses?
We can say not too rashly that it was both. Of course, he profited, as all those who have served Putin have profited by the mere fact of doing so. Prigozhin profited and Putin allowed him to because he served the interests of Russia. What African countries broadcast to the outside world is not that a gang of mercenaries is helping them, but that Russia is helping them. It is evident that there is business for Russia in African resources, which makes the Kremlin’s discourse on its support for these countries that have managed to decolonize even more cynical.
The Wagners are mercenaries and the same can be under that name as any other. Is it possible to think that Putin will continue to use that force in Africa?
I think so, but totally on his terms. The information we have allows us to think that there was a good understanding, a balance between what Prigozhin was doing in Africa and what was convenient for Putin: he was never bothered that those around him get rich; is the way to keep them tied. It’s one of the reasons why it’s hard for oligarchs inside Russia to have any real power – unless they band together, which is science fiction – and can do harm to the regime. It is not clear to me if Prigozhin offered himself or Putin called him to intervene in Ukraine, but the big difference with the African Prigozhin is that he was little known in Russia, while in Ukraine he ended up becoming a hero. Because everyone knows that the regular army is not up to the task and the only ones who save the honor of Russia, so to speak, are Prigozhin’s thugs.
It seems that they have liquidated Wagner’s leadership with a stroke of the pen on the plane. And it was done in such a way that it looked…
I believe that any version of Prigozhin’s death would have been a message. Falling out of a window or a cup of tea eliminates Prigozhin, not the dome, and instead the accident, or whatever they call it—even “attack by a foreign power”—allows them to eliminate all potential substitutes. Wagner’s leadership.
Journalist Hristo Grosev has said that, according to his sources, Prigozhin’s death prompted a coup attempt…
I don’t see it… I really believe, and the facts go in that direction, that Prigozhin did not intend to carry out a coup, he wanted to clean up, put Putin in the position of having to choose between him and the useless those of Shoigu and Gerasimov. And of course, imbued with the role of his national hero, and obviously supported by a series of people, like General Surovikin, who told him: go ahead, we support you. And it was not so. Nothing he did seemed like a hit. Let us remember that his march to Moscow was called the March of Justice. And he had nothing ready in Moscow!
Prigozhin dead, General Surovikin dismissed, General Popov retaliated, Donbass militia leader Igor Girkin arrested… Is the position of General Gerasimov and Defense Minister Shoigu now being strengthened?
Shoigu and Gerasimov are reinforced for the moment! If something happened to them that could be interpreted as a punitive decision by Putin, it would be to prove Prigozhin’s criticisms right, and Putin cannot afford that in any way. But I would not rule out at all, in a while, that Shoigu be retired, to say the least. He defends them at the moment because he can’t do anything else, but they are very toxic allies for him because they are criticized a lot, and not only in radical nationalist circles. It is one of Putin’s weak points at the moment.
