The slowdown in industrial activity observed in recent months has alerted the sector. Both companies and analysts warn of signs of a slowdown in the second semester, a slowdown that comes when industrial GDP has not yet recovered pre-pandemic levels.
The slowdown in industrial activity in the United States, China or Germany, the lower domestic consumption in Spain, the rise in interest rates and the difficulties faced by some SMEs are behind this process, emphasizes Sebastià García, from Cecot. Employers see with concern the latest data from the EPA, which show a destruction of more than 60,000 jobs in the industrial sector during the second quarter of 2023. Textiles, paper and the manufacture of metal products concentrate most of the loss of jobs “They are sectors with more erosion of costs and more inelastic”, points out García. And it draws attention to the complicated situation of small and medium-sized companies, with less capacity to transfer the increase in costs, both labor and energy. “Many now have to deal with the repayment of the ICO loans due to the covid, and they also do not have the capacity of the big ones to opt for the Next Generation funds”, he adds.
The Spanish economy as a whole has already exceeded the pre-pandemic GDP, “but this is not the case with manufacturing”, remarks Joan Ramon Rovira, head of the Cabinet of Economic Studies of the Chamber. Now, although industrial activity has not yet reached the levels it had before the covid shutdown, productivity (production per hour worked) has increased above the rest of the sectors. If overall activities have increased by 1%, industry has increased by 2.8%, says Rovira. “This indicates – he continues – that the most competitive companies, the most exporting ones, have survived”.
Regarding the destruction of employment that was seen in the EPA, María Jesús Fernández, senior economist at Funcas, points out that the data, by itself, does not indicate a decline in the sector. “The previous trend was not negative and, if we look at membership, we see that employment continues to grow”, he comments. But it has lost strength. There is a context of weakening activity in Europe as a whole, with a loss of strength during the second quarter, “an indication that we may find a greater deterioration than expected during the second half of the year” .
In Catalonia, with an industrial GDP of 22.4%, above the Spanish economy as a whole, the trend is similar. The general director of Industry of the Generalitat, Oriol Alcoba, assesses that registered unemployment in the sector has been reduced by more than 2,700 people between January and June of this year, while membership is growing – close to 500,000 people work in the industry, while another 36,000 are unemployed, 4.4% less than in June 2022–. But even so, he warns of the brake on growth. “There is a certain slowdown; a year ago we were growing at 2% year-on-year every month, and now we’re doing it at 1%”, he says. The international context is heavy, the economies of Germany, France and Italy are experiencing some stagnation or are slightly decreasing, and these three countries alone account for 63% of European industrial GDP. “If they go slower, we can suffer; a third of Catalan industry is exported and, of this, a third goes to the three countries mentioned”, he points out.
A lower rate of growth could also have an impact on wages, since the average salary in the industry is higher, believes Salvador Guillermo, from Foment del Treball. Precisely, the good employment data from the last EPA, with a record number of job creation during the second quarter of 603,900 people, were marked by the services sector, specifically tourism, with lower wages.
