Carlo Buontempo, physicist, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, highlights the leap in knowledge that this EU observation program has brought, which offers open and free weather and environmental information from satellites and systems terrestrial, aerial and maritime measurement.
What information that you have had has impacted you the most in relation to the knowledge we have about climate change?
I would cite the anomaly of the summer of 2022, which exceeded by a significant margin the record of the summer of 2021, which was already the hottest summer. And a similar event happened this July 20, when long before the end of the month it could already be said that it was virtually certain that it would be, as it has been, the hottest July in history. The 30 hottest months on record, minus July 1998, have occurred this century; the other 29 were given since 2000.
You told us that we are entering “unknown territory”.
It seems pretty clear to me, because we’re now seeing the highest temperatures on record since we’ve been keeping track. We have information since January 1940, but if we consider all the world information and paleoclimatic studies, we can say that it has been the hottest summer in our history, that of human beings on the planet.
Do we have better weather information now?
Clearly, we know better now what is happening with the climate than we did in the fifties. It’s pretty reliable information, every year, every decade it gets better. We use satellites, the quality is exceptional, we have coverage of the entire planet. Although logically, the further we go in time, the information obtained is less direct and we look at other witnesses (ring of trees…).
This summer there have been many climatic events: record temperatures, fires in Hawaii, Greece or Canada, heat waves in Spain and cyclones in Greece and Libya.
You need to analyze the data accurately. In Greece we had what may have been the biggest fire in the history of the EU; but in Spain, on the other hand, the summer was quiet enough, since there were only a few more fires than usual. You can’t put everything in the same bag. On a global scale, the number of fires has fallen.
Because?
Mostly due to a decline in fires in tropical forests related to deforestation and agricultural practices in many developing countries consisting of burning and then sowing. Our job is to assess the climate parameters that contribute to making fires more dangerous or destructive. The number of days in which the risk of fire is maximum is increasing, because the temperature is rising, the aridity of the earth’s surface is growing and the risk is higher. And this risk must be put in relation to the fuel in the form of biomass that grows in the forest.
The big issue is how to mitigate emissions in transport, energy and agro-industry. What is priority?
Society must define what it wants. As a scientist I can tell you that the rise in temperatures can already be felt all over the world; it is a very clear fact and is directly related to the emission of greenhouse gases; therefore, if we want to change this trend, we must stop the emissions of these gases. The decision is ours.
Then…
Anyway, even if we were able to stop everything tomorrow, the weather is already different. When we talk about climate change, we often think that it is a matter of 20 or 30 years, and that is not the case. We are already in unknown territory.
What role does climate change adaptation play?
It is fundamental. In the next 10, 15, 20 years we will have to adapt to a climate that is already very different and will continue to change. The challenge is for the sectors of society to know how to make more use of the information we already have. Let them know that we are not blind to these radical changes; we are not lost We have good knowledge and have reliable data.
Will we exceed the rise in temperatures of 1.5ºC or 2ºC with respect to the pre-industrial period as set by the Paris Agreement?
We are very close. Now, in August, we have reached a rise of 1.5ºC, but it is a monthly value, and the Paris Agreement refers to an average rise of 1.5ºC over many years. We think that we will overcome this limit towards the year 2034 or 2035, more or less. We have about 10 years left.
Is there no uncertainty?
There is some uncertainty; but we will pass the extreme: it won’t be tomorrow, but not in 2050 either. The discussion is whether after the temperature peak is reached (in the mid-2030s) we will be able to drop again below the increase in 1.5ºC or 2ºC at the end of the century. And here our decisions now are decisive. Because if we want to keep the 1.5ºC goal alive, we have to stop emissions, reach peak temperatures and start dropping them very quickly.
Talk about adaptation. How should it be done in cities?
This is crucial. Most humans already live in cities, the place where heat waves suffer the most and are increasing in intensity and frequency: and we know that it will be worse in cities than outside. It makes sense to work in cities as a preferred place in adapting to climate change.
How should cities be?
The interesting thing is that there are actions within the reach of the mayors and the local administration. The impact can be greatly reduced. This house [he refers to his, in Terrassa] is almost neutral in the use of energy. Different houses can be made, timetables can be changed, in schools and shops. You can also work on the vegetation, the paving, the color of the house paints or reflective surfaces.
