The campaign for the elections to the Basque Parliament on the 21st began last midnight and opens a cycle of three elections in three months. Five days after the Basques have voted, the Catalan campaign will begin, which will culminate with the vote on May 12. Just two weeks later, the campaign for the European elections to be held on June 9 will begin.
Of this chain of elections, the Basque electoral contest will undoubtedly be the one that will have the least implications beyond the Basque Country, although Basque politics has enough emotional and political components to reverberate in Madrid or Barcelona. This struggle is presented as an atypical campaign, marked by the feeling that electoral tension is far from emerging and by a context conditioned by three variables: the generational shift, the preeminence of material issues over identity issues and above all an equality unprecedented in the struggle between the PNB and EH Bildu. This last factor, this tight fight between the Jeltzale Imanol Pradales and the sovereignist Pello Otxandiano, is advanced by all the polls. However, this lack of an electoral atmosphere, the lack of knowledge of the candidates and the high percentage of undecideds advance a component of unpredictability. Between 27% and 31% of Basques, according to the Sociometer and the CIS, respectively, will decide the vote in the coming days, so the parties appear ready to put all the meat on the grill in a campaign that will deal with issues such as now the situation of the health system, housing, the quality of employment or security.
The two great unknowns of these elections are who will win and who will govern, two questions that must be agreed upon. The answer to the first question will undoubtedly come from the fight between the PNB and EH Bildu, two formations that could get more than 75% of the representation (the Basque Sociometer gave them a tie at 29 seats out of 75).
It will be a fight between a doctor in Sociology and Political Sciences who at times looks like an economist close to the business world, Imanol Pradales, and a doctor in Telecommunications Engineering who often looks like a sociologist, Pello Otxandiano.
The jeltzale candidate is credited with being a clone of Iñigo Urkullu, who leaves office with an exceptional approval rating, although differences emerge if you pay attention to his speech. Like the current Lehendakari, he claims his “humanist” vision, but in his interventions appeals to competitiveness or the business world appear with greater frequency. “Money doesn’t grow on trees”, he used to say.
Pello Otxandiano, on the other hand, is one of the engineers of EH Bildu’s pragmatic turn, obstinate in conveying the idea that they can be alternative and, in particular, that they have a country plan that attends to industrial policy, the economy or care .
In any case, only the symbolic winner of the elections could come out of this struggle, something that in the case of EH Bildu would already be a milestone, but which does not guarantee the possibility of assuming the presidency, because the second unknown is who will govern, and the PSE of Eneko Andueza, third in all polls (10-12 seats), will play a key role here.
The Basque Socialists have already announced that they will not make Lehendakari Otxandiano, and everything points to the fact that, should they gain a majority with the PNB (38 seats), they could re-edit a Basque government similar to the current one. The option of a minority government between the two formations is also feasible, although it would require constantly looking at the PP to govern, with the attrition that would entail. A scenario of these characteristics could open some cracks in Basque politics.
The popular electoral performance is another of the unknowns of these elections. The polls place them around the 6 seats, their historic electoral base. The date with the polls on the 21st will finally clarify how the fight between Podemos and Sumar, who risk being left out of the Basque Parliament, will be resolved.
Fifteen years after ETA broke in for the last time shortly before a Basque election, the campaign begins with little tension, many undecided and very close to day-to-day problems. It is just the longing for normality that many have dreamed of.
