The great surprise attack by Hamas against Israel and the forceful response of the Hebrew State have meant a geopolitical upheaval of such magnitude that, suddenly, they have almost completely overshadowed the war in Ukraine, the dominant event on the international scene for almost twenty months.
Analysts look to discern what will be the long-term consequences of the new crisis in the Middle East on the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv. At first glance, it seems that Russia can benefit more immediately, but the scenario becomes more complex, full of nuances, and some experts believe that Ukraine can take more advantage in the long run.
The shift in the focus of attention is evident in the major media. Le Monde, for example, one of the European newspapers that has given the most coverage to the war in Ukraine, dedicated 11 pages, between information and analysis, to the situation in Israel and Gaza in Tuesday’s edition. Not even a line for Ukraine, which is unusual since February 24, 2022 and even before the Russian invasion.
“Ukraine will lose its centrality in the international information space, something that has been its strength from the beginning,” declared Michel Foucher, former French ambassador and author of several books on geopolitics, to La Vanguardia. “The conflict will be trivialized – added Foucher -. All that remains for Ukraine is to intensify its military effort.”
“The escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can only be beneficial for Moscow – wrote the essayist Thomas Friedman, one of the most prestigious signatures in The New York Times -. If Israel invades Gaza and unleashes a protracted war, Ukraine will compete with it for Patriot missiles, 155mm artillery shells and other weapons that Kyiv desperately needs.”
Russian-born professor Pavel Baev, from the Norwegian think tank Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO), explained to this newspaper that, from the Kremlin’s point of view, “any deviation from the western side of the war in Ukraine is a net gain for its aggression”, and that Moscow trusts that “the outbreak of a war in the Middle East will accentuate the differences between the United States and European states”. However, Baev believes that Ukraine can successfully counter these effects.
“Ukraine must demonstrate that it is truly part of the Western community, and the firm and unequivocal support for Israel expressed by President Zelensky is an important step in this direction,” continued the PRIO analyst. In his opinion, Ukraine can also assert the idea that “negotiations with an aggressor, be it Hamas or Putin, make no sense and go nowhere.” “In essence, the tragic events in Israel strengthen Ukraine’s position that aggression must be punished and that a political solution is possible only after a military victory, and not instead of it.”
Bertrand Badie, professor emeritus at the prestigious Sciences Po school in Paris and who has just published Pour une approche subjective des relations internationales, agrees that the shift in attention is significant because “the international community has only been defined in relation with the war in Ukraine, which is an obstacle for Russia”. However, Badie emphasizes the fact that the war between Israel and Hamas poses a diplomatic equation that is not at all easy for Russia, which, in a virtuous balancing act, has managed to maintain good relations with Israel in recent years and, at the same time, with Iran and many Arab states. In this area, warns the Professor of Sciences Po, Moscow “will have to make complicated and surprising decisions”.
Another of the elements that link, according to Badie, the two wars, is oil. If, as a result of the new crisis in the Middle East, the price of crude oil rises substantially and for a long time, this will benefit Russia. From a global diplomatic perspective, the French professor thinks that the Gaza conflict can boost the diplomatic and mediating role of Turkey and some countries in the so-called Global South, where many have maintained an equidistant or ambiguous position regarding the Ukrainian war.
