With unconditional support for Israel assured, the United States’ greatest concern is that the war in Gaza does not become a regional conflict.
The Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is touring the main capitals of the Middle East these days with this priority on the agenda.
His tour overlaps with that of the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hosein Amir Abdolahian, who arrived in Damascus this Friday after having been in Beirut the day before with the leaders of Hizbullah, his main ally and greatest threat to Israel’s security.
After meeting Sheikh Hasan Nasrallah, head of Hizbullah, Abdolahian condemned Israel’s “war crimes” in Gaza and added that they “will undoubtedly provoke a collective response from the resistance axis.”
This axis is an arc that goes from Iran to southern Lebanon through Iraq and Syria, where it has related groups also equipped with rockets that aim at Israel. From northern Yemen, in addition, the Houthis can also lend a hand.
Hizbullah is a Shiite militia and political force that dominates Lebanon. It has some 150,000 rockets, a fabulous arsenal that has northern Israel in suspense. The army is on high alert and drones anticipate the launch of any missile. In the last week, and this Friday, there were several skirmishes with exchanges of fire, but no incursion into Israeli territory.
During a rally in the south of Beirut, Hizbullah’s number two assured that they are “fully prepared” to intervene “when the time is right.”
The United States has positioned the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier battle group, one of the most modern in its fleet, in the eastern Mediterranean, both to help Israel and to deter Iran and Hizbullah.
The British Royal Navy reinforces this deterrent flank with more ships and reconnaissance aircraft.
The Palestinian cause has awakened a solidarity that seemed sold to the economic and strategic interests that many Arab countries entail in approaching Israel, a country with very advanced technology and very useful for any intelligence service.
The atmosphere in capitals traditionally sympathetic to Israel is, however, very tense. The images that satellite channels broadcast incessantly of the bombings on Gaza and the havoc they cause on the civilian population have angered the population and have alerted some leaders who do not forget the uprisings of the Arab Spring in 2011.
Blinken, for example, met this Friday in Amman with Mahmud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority, a pioneer of the struggle for liberation who today has lost his voice and the support of the street. It took him several days to react and when he did it was with a tepid statement, designed to avoid getting into more trouble with Israel. This moderation today could be a problem for US interests, which the last thing they want is a popular uprising in the occupied territories.
Young Palestinians in the West Bank applaud Hamas and criticize its government for being so weak. This Friday they took to the streets to demonstrate it and nine died from gunshot wounds. The expansion of settlements and the arrogance of the settlers represents a humiliation for them that they release with violence.
To contain it, Queen Rania of Jordan has been much more practical than Abbas by posting a story on Instagram with a very graphic criticism of Israel’s use of force in Gaza. “It is not self-defense,” she said, “if you are the occupying force.”
Arab capitals are trying to balance their support for Palestine without snubbing the United States, and it is not easy.
Blinken, for example, went to Doha from Amman to tell the Qataris to pressure Hamas to release the hostages and, at the same time, to stop helping him. The emirate, a great ally of the United States, is one of the main benefactors of Gaza and is also on good relations with Iran, with whom it shares an important gas field in the Persian Gulf.
Blinken also plans to visit Riyadh and Cairo. The Egyptians are key in this conflict. They seem to have much better intelligence than the Israelis in Gaza. They warned, for example, that something out of the ordinary was being prepared by Hamas, although their Israeli colleagues did not take the warning seriously.
Egypt depends on military aid from the United States, which may put pressure on it to take charge of administering Gaza once Hamas is defeated to avoid a power vacuum that would allow another radical militia to take over. But Egypt, which already occupied Gaza between 1949 and 1967, does not want this poisoned gift.
