One week it seems that the agreement is not possible and the next it seems that it is almost done; we go like this”. This is how one of the negotiators of the pact that the PSOE and Junts are seeking to unblock the investiture of Pedro Sánchez or, rather, for the entire legislature, summarizes the situation.
Indeed, the negotiation suffered a crisis last week that shows the fragility of the ground being trodden. A teletype from the Catalan News Agency (ACN), which cited central government sources captured during the celebration of the Twelfth of October, in which Carles Puigdemont was ordered to renounce unilaterality as a condition for the agreement, provoked anger in the Junts side, which considered that premise already overcome.
The crisis occurred one day before the meeting between Pedro Sánchez and Míriam Nogueras, the first that the President of the Government has had with the Junts representative in Congress. Nogueras’s gestures of discomfort at the meeting are an example of the discomfort of that moment. Puigdemont prevented anyone else from Junts from accompanying the spokesperson at the meeting, despite the fact that Sánchez attended with the socialist leader Santos Cerdán and Minister Félix Bolaños. With the misunderstandings cleared up, the talks resumed and have even gained momentum this week. Always with the exception that the negotiation is still completely open and will continue for many days, what follows is a state of the situation at the moment in the three main folders that are being addressed: amnesty, resources and political conflict .
The most difficult thing about drafting the amnesty law was the statement of reasons, since its justification is essential for it to be validated by the Constitutional Court. A story like the one initially intended by Junts, which always emphasizes the legitimacy of 1-O and that “voting is not a crime,” would not have made the cut in that instance. It is not easy because the PSOE, for example, cannot assume 1-O as a referendum without further ado. And Junts cannot accept that the adjective “illegal” is simply added. But you can choose to refer to that vote as a referendum declared illegal by the courts. Negotiators are resorting to more descriptive language, but always thinking about avoiding any loopholes that could overthrow the law.
Efforts are also focused on maximizing the discretion of judges when applying the amnesty. It is feared that the Supreme Court will be the first to react in the cases of political leaders of the process affected and that it will present a question of unconstitutionality before the TC and paralyze its implementation until the result of this consultation is known, which could last for months or years. The negotiators will try to make the rule immediately applicable while the Constitutional Court decides whether or not it conforms to the Magna Carta.
Estimates on the number of people who may be affected by the amnesty law are disparate. The rule cannot be nominal, but the two parties have made their numbers and they could range between 300 and almost 500, to different degrees, since some are immersed in prosecutions for criminal offenses and others for administrative offenses. About fifty police officers would be included. The final figure, in any case, will depend on the various judicial instances, which will decide whether the law is applicable or not to their respective cases.
It is without a doubt the most difficult part to solve. Negotiators are having long and in-depth discussions on this point. Carles Puigdemont, in his speech on September 5, stressed that if there is an agreement, “this has to be a historic agreement, a historic commitment like the one that no other regime or government has been able to make a reality since the fall of Barcelona in 1714 and the Nueva Planta decree, which abolished Catalan institutions.” The negotiators address a story about the origins of the conflict, even beyond the period from the reform of the Statute to the present.
Specifically, work is being done to recognize the rights of Catalonia as a national minority within the Spanish State. A concept that would fit into the EU legal system. There is, for example, the framework agreement for the Protection of National Minorities, a European treaty in force since 1998. On the other hand, a self-determination referendum refers to decolonization processes and is something that in Europe does not enjoy a status when it comes to apply it to your borders. The PSOE continues to refuse to include in a document any reference to a possible self-determination referendum, and that has not led the other party to get up from the table. In fact, Puigdemont, in his speech, did not put it as a condition for the agreement, although he insisted that he was not giving up on getting an agreed referendum in the future.
For Puigdemont, this recognition of a Catalan national minority would be linked to the ruling of the EU Court of Justice that withdrew his immunity as a European parliamentarian. That ruling was unfavorable to their interests, but the independence movement clung to a reference by the court to the possibility of a State denying the extradition of a person if it is proven that this person belongs to an “objectively identifiable group” that has seen some of its rights violated. Your rights. In fact, Puigdemont’s defense is based on belonging to a national minority that the independence movement considers persecuted.
Based on the story about the origins and evolution of the conflict, it is established that the negotiators must commit to its resolution without prefiguring what the outcome should be. In fact, even if the rights of a national minority are recognized, it remains to be determined what these are, since the casuistry in the international system is very varied.
But at this point they come up against the other big obstacle: a mediator who verifies that work will be done in that sense and in compliance with what was agreed. Junts insists on an international figure and/or a conflict verification entity and has even put a name on the table that, for the moment, has not been accepted by the PSOE. What’s more, the Socialists are very reluctant to appoint a mediator, although for Puigdemont it is a key point without which there will hardly be an agreement. Everything is open in this chapter.
In principle, the negotiation is developed and will be deployed in the future, if there is finally an agreement, within the framework of the two parties. Therefore, both the story that is agreed upon and the mediator, if there is one, would be a priori commitments between the PSOE and Junts. That is to say, it is not a table between governments, as is the case with the one that is already in operation, which ERC considers essential to reactivate to give its support to Sánchez’s investiture.
The PSOE negotiates on this matter on two sides, since the Republicans’ claims emphasize the transfer of Rodalies and financing. The truth is that there is a demand from Brussels for the decentralization of public transport (trains and buses) for all of Spain, but the crux of the issue will be not only in the transfer, but in the resources that accompany it. ERC also demands a greater deficit margin for the Generalitat.
Financing and investments tend to be easier to negotiate, as a middle ground can be found, which is more difficult when it comes to identity issues. Even so, some in Junts had put on the table that Catalonia should leave the general regime established by the Lofca, the organic law of financing of the autonomous communities. Something that the PSOE rejected from the beginning. The current negotiations include support for the legislature’s first budgets.
Although no time limit has been set beyond the deadline of November 27 for the last investiture vote, neither the PSOE nor Junts want to rush the deadlines or enter into a dynamic of challenging the other to give in at the last minute. The negotiators are reasonably satisfied with the discretion with which the talks are being conducted and, although mistrust has not completely disappeared, far from it, they admit that the dialogue is being arduous and intense.
The negotiation between the PSOE and Junts for a legislative agreement is advancing once the crisis of last week has been overcome, when it seemed that the electoral repetition was closer. This week, however, both formations are not so pessimistic. The drafting of the amnesty law faces the final stretch. The economic chapter is also discussed, although in this folder ERC also has a lot to say. The main obstacles to the pact with Junts center on the political conflict. Work is underway to recognize Catalonia as a national minority, without this implying an express reference to a self-determination referendum, although the debate remains very open. The figure of the mediator is also still under discussion. Both parties are satisfied with the discretion and intensity of the negotiations, although mistrust has not completely disappeared.
