If it is true that rectification is for wise men, the SNP (Scottish National Party) has an IQ on par with that of Einstein, Plato, Aristotle, Leonardo Da Vinci or the medieval king Alfonso X, who in addition to monarch was an astronomer and whose extensive historical, legal and literary work (done with the help of his scribes) is considered a precursor to Spanish prose. In the last year alone, the nationalists have changed their strategy three times in their quest for independence.

But although the SNP has been wise enough to be in power in Scotland for sixteen years now, it’s actually like those cars that children used to play with, which when they hit the wall or the leg of a chair they made a half turn and went in another direction, until they collided with another obstacle, and so until their battery ran out. In his case, what is striking is the fact that there is no clear majority in favor of independence (the country is divided more or less fifty percent), the British Government’s refusal to hold a new referendum, and the Supreme Court’s ruling that the Holyrood Parliament lacks the authority to call it unilaterally, without London’s consent.

These are imposing obstacles that make any SNP tactic seem doomed to failure, but the quest for sovereignty is the group’s raison d’être, it is what around half the population wants, and it cannot give up. The new tactic (agreed at the congress a few days ago in Aberdeen) sets the achievement of the majority of Scottish seats in Westminster in next year’s general election (at least 29 out of 57) as a benchmark for a mandate pro-independence, and “start negotiations with London to carry out a consultation”.

The previous list was to be the party with the most seats, even if it was not the absolute majority. The previous one, the conquest by the sovereignist parties (the SNP, the Greens and Alba, Alex Salmond’s group) of more than 50% of the votes in the British elections. According to the approach of former Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon, this success would have been interpreted as a popular mandate no longer to hold a referendum, but to proceed directly to negotiate independence.

Going back even further, though not far, to before the courts gave London a veto over holding a consultation, Thursday (October 19) was penciled into the political calendar as the date for a “non-binding referendum” which, if yes, would create enormous pressure on the British Government to allow the break. But this day has passed without sorrow or glory, almost unnoticed, and with independence as far away as it was nine years ago, when remaining in the Union obtained the support of 55% of the electorate.

The great enemy of the new strategy of Humza Yousaf, Sturgeon’s successor and current premier, is that it is one thing for the SNP to consider winning a majority of seats in Westminster to be tantamount to a mandate for independence, and quite another what is different is that the London Government, which has the pan by the handle with the support of the judges, accepts this interpretation. David Cameron gave the go-ahead to a referendum as he did with Brexit, because he was sure he would win it. But Boris Johnson said not to talk about it, Sunak said the same, and Labour’s Keir Starmer doesn’t want to hear anything about it either.

The SNP militants themselves are divided on the best course to follow, with some in favor of unilateralism and others of parking the obsession with a consultation and dedicating the next few years to “governing well” and thus attracting new followers. The Party, worn down by so many years in power, corruption scandals and the poor state of public services, is likely to lose a good part of its 43 seats in Westminster in 2024. Interpret the winning of 29 of the 57 seats that will be up for grabs as a mandate to negotiate independence has the advantage of motivating disenchanted voters.

To stem the bleeding of supporters to Labor (especially from young families living in the suburbs), Humza Yousaf has frozen council taxes (adding €500 million to the budget hole), and announced the issuance of a Scottish bond to finance the debt and probe the reception of the markets. More than the British elections, the ones that matter to the SNP are the regional elections in 2026, in order to continue governing Scotland, and to get there it still has time to change direction a few times…