The Earth emits the “worst vital signs” in the history of humanity. This is the sentence issued by an international team of scientists to warn that the planet is in danger.
This report details that 20 of the 35 planetary indicators used to evaluate the climate crisis are at extreme records. In the list of “markers” analyzed are greenhouse gas emissions, global temperature, sea level rise or figures on the human and livestock population.
Many climate records were broken in 2023 by huge margins compared to previous years, including global air temperature, ocean temperature and the extent of Antarctic sea ice, they highlighted. The highest monthly surface temperature ever recorded was in July and was probably the highest the planet has had in 100,000 years.
The study, published in the journal ‘BioScience’, points out that the Earth’s “vital signals” have worsened more than humans have seen so far, to the point that life on the planet is in danger.
William Ripple, Distinguished Professor, College of Forestry, Oregon State University, United States, and Christopher Wolf, Terrestrial Ecosystems Research Associates, United States, are lead authors of the report, which is also co-authored by 10 others. scientists.
“Without action to address the fundamental problem that humanity takes more from the Earth than it can safely give, we are on a path to the potential collapse of natural and socioeconomic systems and a world of unbearable heat and food shortages. and fresh water,” says Wolf.
This study updates another, from four years ago, when 11,258 scientists from 153 countries released a statement in which they stated “clearly and unequivocally that planet Earth is facing a climate emergency.” At the time, they proposed six areas in which humanity should take immediate action to curb the effects of a warming world, including using only renewable energy, eating less meat, and slowing global population growth.
The authors share new data that illustrates that many climate-related records, particularly those for ocean temperatures and sea ice, have been broken by “huge margins” this year. They also mention the “extraordinary season” of wildfires in Canada, which produced unprecedented carbon dioxide emissions.
“Life on our planet is totally under siege,” says Ripple, before adding: “Statistical trends show deeply alarming patterns of climate-related variables and disasters. “We also found little progress to report when it comes to humanity in the fight against climate change.”
The report highlights that fossil fuel subsidies (actions with which governments artificially reduce the cost of energy production, increase remuneration to producers or reduce the price paid by consumers) doubled between 2021 and 2022, at go from $531 billion to just over a trillion dollars.
Forest fires in Canada have released more than a gigatonne of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere that year, a figure higher than that country’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 (0.67 gigatonnes).
In 2023 there have already been 38 days with global average temperatures more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Until this year, such days were a rarity, according to the authors.
Additionally, the highest average temperature ever recorded on the Earth’s surface occurred last July and there is reason to believe that it was the highest the planet’s surface has seen in the last 100,000 years.
The authors also raise concerns about climate-related risks to food security, highlighting that 735 million people were chronically hungry in 2022, up approximately 122 million from 2019.
Wolf emphasizes that, “by the end of the 21st century, between 3 billion and 6 billion people could be outside the habitable regions of the Earth, which means they will face intense heat, limited food availability and high mortality rates. ”.
“As scientists, we are enormously concerned about sudden increases in the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters,” says Wolf, adding: “The frequency and severity of these disasters could be outpacing rising temperatures.”
The authors highlight that policies are needed that address the underlying issue of “ecological overshoot.” When human demand on the Earth’s resources is too great, a series of environmental crises occur, including declines in biodiversity. As long as humanity continues to put extreme pressure on the planet, any strategy that focuses solely on carbon or climate will simply redistribute the pressure, they say.
If no action is taken quickly, the authors say, more than half of the world’s population could be “confined beyond the habitable region” of Earth, subject to deadly heat, limited food availability and high mortality.
“Our goal is to communicate climate facts and make policy recommendations. It is a moral duty of scientists and our institutions to alert humanity of any possible existential threats and show leadership by taking action,” says Ripple.
The authors call for a transition to a global economy that prioritizes human well-being and limits overconsumption and excessive emissions by the wealthy.
Specific recommendations include phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, transitioning to plant-based diets, intensifying forest protection efforts, and adopting international carbon removal and fossil fuel nonproliferation treaties.
They emphasize that all climate-related actions must be based on equity and social justice, and point out that extreme weather conditions and other climate impacts disproportionately affect the poorest people, who have contributed the least to climate change. .
The authors also emphasize the need for gender justice, including greater support for the education and rights of women and girls.
“This is our moment to make a profound difference for all life on Earth and we must embrace it with unwavering courage and determination to create a legacy of change that will stand the test of time,” they conclude.
