Mass consumption is approaching a crucial date for its activity: the Christmas campaign. The economic and political context, however, will condition sales. The president of Aecoc, Javier Campo, advances that the entire sector estimates “zero growth in volume” due to this. “In September we witnessed a sharp drop in consumer confidence also as a result of political uncertainty; we will have to see how this confidence evolves between now and the end of the year,” he believes.
This stagnation in volume has been observed throughout the year, adds the president of Aecoc, an association that celebrates its 38th Congress this Wednesday in Zaragoza. Among the issues that most concern large consumer companies and that they will analyze at the meeting, inflation and the effect it is having on the behavior of households and the evolution of companies stand out.
“The sector is not getting rich,” Campo defends. “In large-scale distribution,” he continues, “the drop in margins in the accumulated period of 2021 and 2022 has been 1.5% of the sales figure, which is a lot” in an activity that operates with very narrow margins, between 1% and 3%. This decrease has slowed the investment pace of a large number of companies, he adds.
Looking ahead to next year, however, the situation should normalize. “We hope that food inflation begins to be contained,” he says. As for olive oil, with a 67% increase in price in September, he considers it likely that the upward spiral will stop, but prices “will not return to the levels we had two or three years ago,” he warns. We will have to live for a few more months with one-liter bottles of extra virgin oil for ten euros. Campo demands, however, the extension of the VAT reduction on food during 2024, a measure that has helped consumers, he values.
Mass consumption also sees a profound change in purchasing habits to confront the rising prices of food and other products. “They are trying to adapt by consuming cheaper protein. Instead of beef or fish, they are consuming eggs or chicken, or products with a lower price per kilo. In short, the consumer is adapting by reducing average tickets both in the supermarket and in restaurants, to adjust their budgets.” It is this exhaustive control of spending that can impact the decisive Christmas campaign.