The EH Bildu coalition would prevail over the PNV in their very tight fight on the 21st, according to the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). This body gives the Abertzale coalition an estimate of between 34.2% and 35.1% of the vote, while the Jeltzales would be slightly lower, with between 32.6 and 33.5%. The CIS does not make a projection this time of the seats they would achieve, although it is striking how the tables turn in relation to its previous measurement, published on April 1.
So, just 9 days ago, the CIS gave the jeltzales an estimate of 36.1%, compared to 33% in the case of EH Bildu. This placed them with 30-31 seats, for the PNV, and 28-29, for EH Bildu.
On this occasion, even without an estimate of seats, it is significant that the CIS places EH Bildu above, since it indicates a positive trend of the nationalist party, which would obtain an advantage of between 2 and 3 points over the PNV. In this way, compared to the previous measurement, jeltzales would drop between 3 and 4 points, while EH Bildu would rise between 1 and 2 points.
It is not easy to translate these percentages into seats, since a vote in Bizkaia is not worth the same as one in Álava (25 seats are distributed in each territory, regardless of its population). In any case, the victory of EH Bildu in percentage of the vote would certainly mean a victory in seats, since the nationalist coalition is stronger, in relative terms, in Gipuzkoa and Álava, the two territories in which the translation into seats of the most votes.
It should be mentioned, however, that these percentages are estimates, a calculation made taking into account the direct vote mentioned in the survey, the percentage of undecided people (19.3%) and other variables. From there, from the ‘kitchen’ of the CIS professionals, the estimate comes out.
Regarding the direct vote revealed, EH Bildu would stand at 25.2%, while the PNV would reach 22.8%. In the CIS nine days ago, EH Bildu reached 27.9% of the direct vote, and the PNV 25.9%.
Regarding the estimate -not the direct vote- for the rest of the formations, the PSE would remain in third position with an estimate of between 13.3 and 14.1%, a higher percentage than that given to it by the previous CIS (gave 13.1%); the PP would be around 7%, somewhat less than in the previous poll (7.7%); Sumar would be between 3.1% and 3.6% (previous CIS, 3.7%); and Podemos would reach 3.1%-3.2% (2.5% in the previous one). Vox would also grow, going from an estimate of 1.7% in the previous one to 2.7%-3% in this one.
Last week, the CIS results served to calm the spirits in the Jeltzales ranks, since it gave them a victory in seats and, in fact, gave them practically the same representation that they have today (31), dropping at most one seat .
This new installment of the CIS once again equalizes the battle between jeltzales and EH Bildu, which would achieve an unprecedented boost, going from its current 21 seats to around 28-30.
This survey, in fact, shows a disturbing trend for the PNV: vote transfers to EH Bildu are high. Taking the 2020 elections as a reference, marked by high abstention, the PNV would have a voting loyalty of 62.4%, while 9.1% of those who voted for them would now opt for EH Bildu, 2.3% for the PP and 17.9% declare themselves undecided.
As for the nationalist coalition, it would have a voter loyalty of 88.2% and only 6% of those who voted for them are undecided. In addition, they would receive that 9% of PNV voters, 31.9% of Podemos or 10.4% of abstention.
Likewise, among those who were not of legal age in the 2020 Basque Parliament elections, 28.6% would vote for EH Bildu, 22.3% for the PNV and 2.2% for the PSE, while 25. 9% declare themselves undecided, 5.9% say they will vote for Vox and only 0.6% say they will not vote.
In any case, the most decisive part of the campaign is yet to come and the percentage of undecided people remains very high.
The field work for the survey published today was carried out between April 1 and 8, while the previous one was carried out between March 18 and 22.
In a context of maximum equality and with many people who have yet to decide their vote, the electoral campaign will dictate the sentence.
