The Ukrainian Government has the double need to convince its allies that it is making progress in a counteroffensive that is no longer known whether it is or not and, at the same time, to warn that the winter will be hard and the Russian forces will devote themselves to bombing all kinds of ‘energy-related targets, so Kyiv needs, once again and as always, to strengthen its anti-aircraft defense. For this double reason, Zelenski’s Government strives to send positive messages that show the efficiency of the armed forces, precisely at times when they see their allies growing discouraged at the prospect of a much longer war than expected and that does not promise changes in the coming months.
After several weeks of unheeded rumors and discretion by official propaganda, on Friday the Ukrainians finally announced the first significant military action since June: they have crossed the Dnieper and established several bridgeheads on the left bank, front on the front, with the Russian defenses. Perhaps scarred by the frustration left by the counter-offensive of the summer, they have waited a month to say it.
The first landing on the left or south bank of the great river took place – and has been recognized as such by Russian sources – on October 17. It was in Krinki, a small town about 35 kilometers east of the city of Kherson and downstream of the destroyed Nova Kakhovka dam. A few days later, the Ukrainian marines made up to four more attempts to the west, in the Poima sector, and were repulsed by Russian artillery and aviation.
Now the general command of the Ukrainian forces claims that it has “several” bridgeheads, an aspect that seems to be confirmed by Russian military bloggers who refer to fighting in different sectors. The Russian governor of Kherson, Vladimir Saldo, has also confirmed the Ukrainian presence at least in Krinki, where marines are trying to get material and equipment through pontoons, favored whenever they can by fog and bad weather, but sometimes rejected by Russian artillery.
The Ukrainian military communique on Friday was triumphant. This month’s operations on the Dnieper would have caused around 3,500 Russian casualties, including dead and wounded, and would have destroyed a large number of tanks and armored vehicles. On November 8, the Ukrainians were able to move armored vehicles, on the 13th they would have advanced west along the riverbank and on Friday they would have stopped. Their positions, they claim, were consolidated.
Since February, the marines, aboard inflatable boats, have made raids on the Dnieper and the marshes. The current incursion is also not a large-scale operation, as shown by the fact that the Russians have not felt the need to move reinforcements.
The official version says that it is about moving Russian forces away from the shore to protect the civilians of Kherson, who are suffering from their attacks. It should be remembered that in November 2022 General Surovikin, then in command of Russian operations in Ukraine – and today fallen from grace -, ordered the evacuation of this region north of the Dnieper to withdraw to the south bank. The capital, Kherson, however, has been within reach of Russian artillery. A few days ago, another reprisal, Igor Guirkin, alias Strelkov, former Donetsk military chief, wrote from prison that it was a mistake to withdraw from Kherson.
Another objective of the landing, according to the military statement, consists of reconnaissance actions to identify Russian supply routes. However, during a visit to Washington on Monday, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Iermak, shot a long shot when he stated in a conference that “the armed forces of Ukraine have captured a bridgehead on the left of the Dnieper. Step by step, we demilitarize Crimea. We have covered 70% of the distance. And our counteroffensive continues.”
While it is true that Kyiv continues to pressure Crimea with drones, and that the Kherson region is one of the steps towards the peninsula, the distance is enormous. But the need to convey some progress is imperative, especially after the frankness with which General Zalujni recently spoke about the stagnation of the war, much to President Zelenski’s discomfort, and the need for ammunition and – above all – technology .
The southern front remains stationary and in the east there is a long and hard battle for the Avdiivka enclave in Donetsk, apparently at a very high cost to the Russian attacker who remembers the situation that took place in Bakhmut.
So the crossing of the Dnieper – regardless of whether it is able to prosper or otherwise draw Russian forces from other fronts – appears as a symbol.
